社会发展因素对恶性肿瘤过早死亡长期趋势的影响  

Influence of social development factors on the long-term trend of early death of patients with malignant tumors

作　　者：陈青华 叶春梅 张英[1] 刘天娥[1] 韩荣荣[1] 胡永勤[1] CHEN Qinghua;YE Chunmei;ZHANG Ying;LIU Tiane;HAN Rongrong;HU Yongqin(Yuhang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 311100,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州市余杭区疾病预防控制中心慢性病防治科,浙江杭州311100

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2021年第6期452-456,共5页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

摘　　要：目的探讨社会因素在控制恶性肿瘤过早死亡中的作用。方法收集2010—2019年杭州市余杭区恶性肿瘤死亡人数、社会经济GDP、卫生事业投入和医疗保险等数据,采用生态趋势比较法分析各种社会因素变化对恶性肿瘤过早死亡的影响,采用SPSS 22.0软件对数据进行统计分析。结果 2010年—2019年杭州市余杭区各年度恶性肿瘤死亡率介于142.22/10万~162.49/10万,年度变动趋势无统计学意义(APC=-0.05%,P>0.05),其中30岁~69岁组过早死亡数占总死亡数49.66%,过早死亡概率介于4.88%~7.09%,呈下降趋势(APC=-3.50,P<0.05),2019年较2010年绝对下降了1.49个百分点。同期社会经济GDP、卫生事业投入和医疗保险参保人数均有大幅增长(APC分别为17.36、19.18、8.42,P<0.05)。2019年较2010年,社会经济GDP绝对增长2 195.19亿元,卫生事业投入增长16.9亿元,基本医疗保险参保人数增加了46.12万人。这些社会因素变动与恶性肿瘤早死概率呈负相关联系(r值分别为-0.86、-0.83、-0.92,P<0.05)。结论社会经济增长等社会因素促进了地区肿瘤防治水平的整体提高,对恶性肿瘤过早死亡控制产生了积极效果。Objective To explore the role of social factors in controlling the early death of patients with malignant tumors. Methods Data of the number of malignant tumor deaths in Yuhang District of Hangzhou from 2010 to 2019, the GDP, health service investment and medical insurance were collected. Ecological trend comparison was used to analyze the influence of social factors on the early death of malignant tumor patients, and SPSS statistics 22.0 was used for data analysis. Results From 2010 to 2019, the mortality rates of malignant tumors ranged from 142.22/100,000 to 162.49/100,000, and the annual trend was not statistically significant(APC=-0.05%, P>0.05), among which the number of death in the age group of 30-69 years old accounted for 49.66% of the total number of death. The probability of early death ranged from 4.88% to 7.09%, which showed a decreasing trend(APC=-3.50, P<0.05). The absolute decline was 1.49% in 2019 in comparison with year 2010. Meanwhile, the GDP, investment in Health Service and the number of insured persons in medical insurance were increased significantly(APC were 17.36, 19.18 and 8.42, respectively;P<0.05). Compared with 2010, the absolute increase of 2019 in GDP was 219.519 billion RMB, the investment in health services increased by 1.69 billion RMB, and the number of people participating in basic medical insurance increased by 461,200 in 2019. There were negative correlations between these social factors and the probability of early death(r were-0.86,-0.83 and-0.92, respectively;P<0.05). Conclusions Social factors such as social economic growth promote the overall improvement in regional cancer prevention and control, and have a positive effect on the control of early death of malignant tumor patients.

关 键 词：社会因素 恶性肿瘤 早死概率 长期趋势 肿瘤三级预防 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学] R73-31[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]