中国国民财富总量、结构及其演进模式研究——基于“自上而下-自下而上”测度范式  

Research on Size and Structure of National Wealth of China and Its Evolution Pattern:Based on“Top-down and Bottom-up”Approach

作　　者：郝枫 Hao Feng

机构地区：[1]天津商业大学 [2]天津商业大学经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2021年第7期112-126,共15页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国国民财富总量构成、地区配置与跨期转换的统计测度研究”(16BTJ001)。

摘　　要："财富-福利等式"表明国民财富与社会福利具有理论等价关系,是评估发展可持续性的最优指示器。我国国民财富研究相对滞后,总量测度与结构分析都亟待深化。本文基于"自上而下-自下而上"范式,依据国情优化关键参数的设定,改进了我国国民财富与分类资本估算,并剖析了省际国民财富结构以识别其演进模式。研究发现:由于资源禀赋与发展阶段有别,省际国民财富结构差异显著;随着经济发展水平提升,国民财富结构先由自然资本主导转向物质资本与人力资本共同主导,进而转变为人力资本主导,最终迈入社会资本主导。各地区应结合自身禀赋与发展阶段做好"投资组合管理",以此来提升国民财富并优化其结构从而改善经济发展的持续性。The Wealth-wellbeing Equation indicates that national wealth is theoretically equivalent to social wellbeing and is the best indicator to evaluate the sustainability of development.National wealth research is relatively inadequate in China,and its quantity measurement and structural analysis need to be enhanced.Based on the"top-down and bottom-up"approach,this paper optimizes key parameter settings according to China’s situation,improves the estimation of national wealth and different kinds of capital stock,and finally analyzes the structure of provincial national wealth to identify its evolution pattern.The main findings are as follows:the structure of national wealth varies significantly among provinces due to the differences in resource endowment and development stages;with the development of economy,the dominant force of national wealth shifts from natural capital to a combination of human and produced capital,then it will be dominated by human capital and eventually by social capital.Each province should make"portfolio management"according to its resource endowment and development stage,and improve the sustainability of economic development by increasing the size and optimizing the structure of national wealth.

关 键 词：财富-福利等式 国民财富结构 资本存量 演进模式 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]