美国政治信念与对外政策——冷战后《美国国家安全战略》报告的操作码分析  

American Political Beliefs and Foreign Policy:An Operational Code Analysis on the National Security Strategy of the United States Following the Conclusion of the Cold War

作　　者：韩召颖[1] 李圣达 Han Zhaoying;Li Shengda(Zhou Enlai School of Government,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]南开大学周恩来政府管理学院,天津300350

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第7期23-47,157,158,共27页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“美国对外战略调整研究”(项目批准号:20AGJ010)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：冷战结束后,美国对外政策随着其国家战略的调整而变化,对国际关系发展产生了重大影响。国际关系学界对这种变化的原因分析众多,形成了结构决定论、政党更替论和总统影响论等不同解释。但美国的对外政策并非只有变化,而是延续与变化共存。既有研究大多只关注变化,而对冷战后美国对外政策延续和变化共存的情况关注较少,并且理论解释与现实经验不完全吻合。在既有研究成果的基础上,运用操作码分析方法对美国政治信念进行研究,能够提供一种解释冷战后美国对外政策延续和变化的不同视角。操作码分析是测量决策者政治信念的一种文本分析手段,其内容包括五个哲学信念问题和五个工具信念问题,代表了决策者如何看待政治世界和选择政策工具的偏好。《美国国家安全战略》报告由历任总统发布,代表了美国政府的观点和立场,直接体现着其对外政策的战略思想。因此,对冷战后《美国国家安全战略》报告的操作码分析,不仅有助于更充分地认识冷战后美国的政治信念,而且可以更好地解读美国政治信念变化与对外政策调整的逻辑。研究得出三点发现:其一,冷战后美国对外政策的延续和变化与美国的政治信念有关。其二,美国对外政策的延续与其哲学信念有关,历任政府对国际政治环境的判断相似,认为政治世界不像冷战时期那样具有冲突性,对美国霸权的自信程度较高。其三,美国对外政策的变化与其工具信念有关,历任政府对政治目标的确定和手段选取偏好有所不同。总体而言,美国仍会坚持维护自身的霸权,并更倾向基于自身政治目标选取政策手段,这会对未来国际政治和中美关系稳定造成影响。Since the conclusion of the Cold War,the United States(US)foreign policy has been changing with the adjustment of its national strategy,which has significantly impacted the development of international relations.IR Scholars have analyzed various reasons for these changes,such as structural factors,party turnover,and presidential influence.However,while the US foreign policy retained general continuity,there were still various aspects of change.Most of the extant research primarily focused on the changes,but few studies concentrated on both changes and continuity of the US foreign policy after the Cold War.Additionally,theoretical explanations are not completely consistent with empirical observations.Based on previous research,this paper provides an alternative perspective to explain the changes and continuity of the US foreign policy after the Cold War by employing operational code analysis to examine American political beliefs.Operational code analysis is a text analysis approach utilized to measure the political beliefs of decision makers.It contains five philosophical beliefs and five instrumental beliefs as criteria to determine how policy makers view the political world and their choice preference for policy tools.Reports on The National Security Strategy of the United States have been issued by successive presidents,thereby representing the views and positions of the US government,which directly reflect its foreign policy strategic thinking.Therefore,the operational code analysis on the reports concerning The National Security Strategy of the United States not only offers a comprehensive understanding about US political beliefs after the Cold War,but also provides a better interpretation on the logic between political beliefs and foreign policy adjustments.Three major findings are identified in this paper:1)The continuation and changes in US foreign policy after the Cold War are closely related to US political beliefs;2)The continuation of the US foreign policy is related to its philosophical beliefs,and su

关 键 词：政治信念 操作码分析 对外政策 《美国国家安全战略》报告 国际秩序 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]