不确定性视角下的美国战略威慑与信号博弈  

US Strategic Deterrence and Signaling Game from the Perspective of Uncertainty

作　　者：祁昊天[1] Qi Haotian(School of International Studies,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院,北京100871

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2021年第7期48-77,158,共31页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：近年来,美国持续进行战略力量强化与核战略调整,并做出了突出实战特征、强化体系化响应能力以及模糊核常界限等动作。从美国外部安全环境来看,这些选择的必要性不强,而且伴随着高昂的成本和可能导致战略不稳定的代价。既有理论从外部威胁、技术影响与认知定位三个层面对美国战略力量建设进行了解释,但这些解释无法有效处理美国战略力量定位的矛盾性与核战略演化的长期特征。作为对这些传统解释路径的补充与完善,在系统不确定性的背景之下,可通过威慑效能的信号博弈机制与美国长周期战略演进对美国战略力量调整提出新的解释。美国战略力量的加强体现了降低或消弭国家安全能力风险、提高系统冗余的意图,但同时可能引发战略不稳定与不安全。在博弈建模、过程追踪及词频和语义分析的多元方法支持下,美国战略力量的长周期发展与定位可在安全环境确定性与系统能力冗余两个维度得到综合解释。信号机制与演变特征既体现在美国战略力量与核战略发展的不同历史阶段,也有助于预测后者的走向。The United States is continuously strengthening its strategic forces,adjusting its nuclear strategy,and taking actions such as highlighting capabilities of actual combat,strengthening its systematic warfighting capability,and blurring the boundary between nuclear and conventional forces.From the perspective of the external security environment of the United States,the necessity of these choices is not strong enough,and they are associated with high costs and may lead to strategic instability.The existing literature offers three explanatory approaches,focusing on external security environment,technological influence and cognitive preferences respectively.But these explanations cannot address the inner contradiction and long-term pattern of the evolution of US strategic forces and nuclear strategy.As an addition and refinement of the existing literature,the mechanism of deterrence effectiveness in signaling game and the evolution of American long-term strategy can explain the current adjustment of American strategic forces against the background of systemic uncertainty.Strengthening the US strategic forces reflects the intention of reducing or eliminating the risks in national security and improving the systemic redundancy.But the very act of strengthening may contradictorily lead to strategic instability and insecurity.Based on multi-methods such as formal modeling,process tracing,and content analysis,the development and orientation of US strategic forces can be explained and predicted along the two dimensions,namely the certainty in security environment and systemic redundancy.Signaling mechanism and evolutionary pattern were present in different developmental stages of US strategic forces and nuclear strategy.They can also contribute to making predictions about the future direction of this development and evolution.

关 键 词：美国核战略 战略威慑 信号博弈 系统不确定性 能力冗余 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]