中国粮食种植业TFP增长率及其演进趋势:1980-2018  

Total Factor Productivity Change in China's Grain Production Industry:1980-2018

作　　者：郑志浩[1,2] 程申 ZHENG Zhihao;CHENG Shen

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院 [2]中国农业大学北京食品安全政策与战略研究基地

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2021年第7期100-120,共21页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(编号13YJA790162);中国农业大学2115人才工程的资助。

摘　　要：研究改革开放以来中国粮食种植业TFP增长率,了解粮食种植业TFP增长率及其时序变动趋势,有助于准确判断中国粮食种植业的可持续发展状况。本文基于1980—2018年省级面板数据的研究发现,中国粮食种植业TFP表现为加速增长模式,粮食种植业的TFP年均增长率为1.42%,技术进步而非技术效率推动了粮食种植业TFP增长,粮食种植业产出增长主要源于TFP的增长贡献。小麦的TFP表现为恒速增长模式,稻谷和玉米的IFP则呈现为先下降后上升的“U型”模式,小麦、稻谷和玉米的TFP年均增长率分别为1.69%、0.33%和1.30%。技术进步促进了小麦、稻谷和玉米的TFP增长,技术效率对小麦TFP增长有推动作用,对稻谷和玉米TFP增长则有延缓作用。小麦产出增长主要源于TFP的增长贡献,稻谷和玉米产出增长则更多地源于投入要素驱动。2000年后的粮食种植业和玉米的TFP增长率显著高于2000年前,小麦的TFP增长率于2000年前后没有发生显著变化,2000年后稻谷的TFP增长率则显著低于2000年前。中国粮食种植业TFP增长率依然有较大的上升空间,提高稻谷和玉米的TFP增长率,不仅有助于促进这两种作物的产出快速增长,而且会进一步加快粮食种植业产出和TFP的增长速度。Based on the provincial panel data and times-seris data from 1980 to 2018,this article finds that the total factorproductivity(TFP)of China's grain production industry shows an accelerated growth mode,with an average anmual growth rate of1.42%。Teehnological progress rather than technical efficiency promotes the TTP growth of grain production incustry,and theoutput growth of grain production industry mainly comes from the growth contribution of TFP.The TFP of wheat shows a constantgrowth pattem,while that of rice and corn shows a"LU-shaped"patterm.The average annual growth rates of TFP of wheat,rice andcorn were 1.69%,0.33% and 1.30%,respectively.Technological progress has promoted the TFP growth of wheat,rice and com,while technical efficiency has promoted the TFP growth of wheat and delayed the TFP growth of rice and com.The output growthof wheat is mainly driven by TFP,while the output growth of rice and corn is much driven by input factors.After 2000,the TFPgrowth rate of grain production industry and corm has been significantly higher than that before 2000,the TFP growth rate of wheathas demonstrated no significant chuange around 2000,and the TFP growth rate of rice after 2000 hus become sintificeanly lwerthan that before 2000.The TFP growth rate of China's grain production industry still has a large room to rise.Improving the TFPgrowth rate of rice and com can not only promote the rapid growth of the output of these two crops,but also further accelerate thegrowth rate of the output of grain production industry and TFP.

关 键 词：TFP增长率 演进趋势 粮食种植业 随机前沿生产函数 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]