郑州市大气PM2.5与居民循环系统疾病死亡的相关性  

Correlations between atmospheric PM and residents’circulatory disease deaths in Zhengzhou

作　　者：刘乐 韦慧燕 王兵亚 何燕[1] LIU Le;WEI Huiyan;WANG Bingya;HE Yan(Department of Social Medicine and Health Management,School of Public Health,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou,Henan 450001,China;Department of Nutrition,Zhengzhou People's Hospital,Zhengzhou,Henan 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理教研室,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州人民医院营养科,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《环境与职业医学》2021年第7期740-746,共7页Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine

基　　金：河南省科技攻关计划项目(162102310548)。

摘　　要：[背景]大气污染物PM_(2.5)暴露与循环系统疾病死亡人数存在密切关联,但不同城市之间PM_(2.5)对循环系统疾病死亡人次的影响存在差异。[目的]重点探讨郑州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度与居民循环系统疾病日均死亡人数的相关性。[方法]收集2019年郑州市大气污染物、气象资料以及居民循环系统疾病死亡数据。采用Spearman相关分析三者之间的相关性。采用基于Poisson分布的广义线性模型,控制长期趋势、星期几效应和气象等影响因素后,研究郑州市大气PM_(2.5)浓度与循环系统疾病日均死亡人数的关系及滞后效应,同时对年龄和季节进行分层分析。[结果]2019年郑州市居民因循环系统疾病死亡共19429人,日均死亡(55.32±13.35)人。郑州市2019年PM_(2.5)年均浓度为(65.81±41.10)μg·m-3。Spearman相关分析表明,循环系统疾病日均死亡人数与PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)、CO和气压均呈正相关,与O3-8h、日均温度和相对湿度呈负相关(P<0.05)。单污染物模型中,PM_(2.5)与循环系统疾病总人群、<65岁和≥65岁人群死亡的关联分别在lag2、1ag4和lag3时最高,PM_(2.5)每升高10μg·m-3,其风险分别增加0.472%(95%CI:0.098%~0.847%)、0.700%(95%CI:0.059%~1.345%)、0.516%(95%CI:0.097%~0.937%),PM_(2.5)浓度与循环系统疾病人群死亡的暴露-反应关系曲线均呈近似线性的缓慢上升状态。在供热期和非供热期,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg·m-3,对总人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险分别增加0.665%(95%CI:0.084%~1.249%)和1.919%(95%CI:0.355%~3.506%)(P<0.05);在非供热期,PM_(2.5)浓度每升高10μg·m-3,≥65岁人群循环系统疾病每日死亡风险增加2.734%(95%CI:0.975%~4.524%)(P<0.05)。双污染物模型中,在供热期,纳入SO_(2)时,PM_(2.5)浓度升高对总人群和≥65岁人群循环系统疾病每日死亡风险的影响具有统计学意义(P<0.05);纳入O3-8h时,对总人群的影响仍然具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。在非供热期,分别�[Methods]Data of air pollutants,meteorological variables,and death of Zhengzhou residents in2019 were collected.Spearman correlation analysis was used to understand the correlations among the variables.Poisson generalized linear model was employed,after controlling covariates such as long-term trend,day-of-the-week effect,and meteorological factors,to evaluate the daily circulatorydisease deaths associated with atmospheric PM_(2.5) concentrations and the lag effect.Age-and season-stratified analyses were also conducted.[Results]A total of 19429 people died of circulatory diseases in Zhengzhou in 2019,with an average of 55.32±13.35 people every day.The average annual concentration of PM_(2.5) in Zhengzhou was(65.81±41.10)μg·m-3 in 2019.The Spearman correlation analysis results showed that the average daily death number of circulatory diseases was positively correlated with PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2),CO,and air pressure,and negatively correlated with O3-8h,average daily temperature,and relative humidity(P<0.05).In the single-pollutant model,the correlations between PM_(2.5) concentration and deaths from circulatory diseases in total,<65 years old,and≥65 years old populations were strongest at lag2,lag4,and lag3,and for every 10μg·m-3 increase in the concentration of PM_(2.5),the risk of daily mortality increased by 0.472%(95%CI:0.098%-0.847%),0.700%(95%CI:0.059%-1.345%),and 0.516%(95%CI:0.097%-0.937%),respectively.The curve of the exposureresponse relationship between PM_(2.5) concentration and circulatory disease deaths showed an approximate linear rise.In both heating and non-heating periods,every 10μg·m-3 increase in PM_(2.5) concentration was associated with an increase in daily mortality risk of circulatory system diseases in the total population by 0.665%(95%CI:0.084%-1.249%)and 1.919%(95%CI:0.355%-3.506%)respectively(P<0.05);in the non-heating period,every 10μg·m-3 increase in PM_(2.5) concentration was associated with an increase in daily mortality risk of circulatory diseases in the residen

关 键 词：大气污染 PM2.5 循环系统疾病 死亡 

分 类 号：R122[医药卫生—环境卫生学]