增强环境自适应能力 优化建构新操作系统——关于十四五规划环境特点与系统科学方法论认知及建议  

Improving the Self Adaptive Capacity of the Environment,Optimizing the Structure of a New Operating System——The Cognitions and Suggestions on the Characteristics of the Environment and the Systematic Scientific Methodology of the 14th Five-Year Plan

作　　者：浦再明 PU Zai-ming(National Institute of Strategic Studies,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学国家战略研究院,上海200030

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2021年第3期48-51,共4页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

摘　　要：从系统科学讲,规划是规划系统与环境适应的产物。“十四五”规划,与以往经典的五年规划相比,有着本质意义的不同。这不仅是规划内部系统要素发生战略性变化,而且是规划外部环境因素发生战略性变化。在此,从方法论认知视角提若干建议:(1)建议高度重视“十四五”规划战略环境复杂性的“系统科学认知”。现在这种大变局是一种全系统的变局。需要从大尺度多维时空认知,甚至要跳出自身局限,站到“第三视野”认知,不仅要从内部系统与外部环境的视角认知,而且要从系统与环境复杂交互的视角认知。(2)建议全面增强“十四五”规划的“环境自适应能力”。规划系统本质上是一个适应环境的“复杂适应系统”。在规划理念上,要更加注重系统思维;在战略指导上,要更加注重开放思维;在任务部署上,要更加注重平行思维;在规划手段上,要更加注重仿真思维。要强化规划制定的可模拟性、可推演性和可配置性,使规划方式从传统走向现代、从经验走向科学。(3)建议优化建构“十四五”规划新的“科学操作系统”。整个规划制定和执行要自觉增强三大基本能力:1)强化“环境探测器”功能,增强环境中提取信息的能力。2)强化“规则发生器”(IF…THEN规则)功能,增强运用规则处理特定信息的能力。3)强化“环境效应器”功能,增强信息处理作用于环境的能力。与此同时,要探索建立一整套“连续统”的五年规划系统和机制。From the perspective of the system science,planning is the product of the planning system and the adaption to the environment.The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan,compared to the previous classic five-year plans,is fundamentally different.This is not only due to a strategic change of the key elements in the planning internal system,but also a strategic change in the factors of planning external environment.Therefore,some suggestions are made based on the methodological cognitions:(1)It is recommended to attach great attention to“system science cognition”of the complexity of the strategic environment of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.It should be recognized from a large scale and multi-dimension perspective.Additionally,it should be recognized from the“third horizon”,even out of its own limitations,not only from the perspective of the internal system and the external environment,but also from the angle of the complex interactions between the system and environment.(2)It is recommended to comprehensively enhance the“environmental adaptive capability”of the 14 th Five-Year Plan.The planning system,per se,is the“complex adaptive system”that adapts to the environment.With regards to the planning concepts,it is recommended to emphasize on the systematic thinking;In strategic guidance,it is recommended to be more open minded;In the task deployment,it is recommended to lay attention to the parallel thinking;in planning methods,it is recommended to pay more attention to simulation thinking.It is necessary to strengthen the stimulability,deducibility and configurability of the planning,so that the planning method can move from traditional to modern,and from experience to science.(3)It is recommended to optimize the construction of a new“scientific operating system”in the 14 th Five-Year Plan.The formulation and the execution of the entire plan should consciously enhance the three basic functions.1)Strengthen the“environmental detector”function and enhance the ability to extract information from the environment.2

关 键 词：系统科学 规划系统 规划环境 复杂适应系统 科学操作系统 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学]