基于Logistic回归模型的企业财务风险诊断研究  

Research on Financial Distress Diagnosis of Enterprises Based on Logistic Regression Model

作　　者：杨柏辰 张怡 郭炜[1] YANG Bai-chen;ZHANG Yi;GUO Wei(School of Management,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Business School,Durham University,Durham DH13LE,The United Kingdom)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]杜伦大学商学院,杜伦郡杜伦DH13LE

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2021年第3期84-87,共4页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

摘　　要：国内对上市公司的企业财务风险预测已有不少工作,已有方法多关注提升模型的预测精度性能,对此本文将着眼于模型财务指标的选取进行研究。通过选取连续两年亏损的上市公司及与之对应的正常公司共148家作为研究对象,聚焦于能够反映问题企业与正常企业在偿债能力、增长状况和经营状况多个维度具有显著差异的五个财务指标。建立了基于logistic回归的企业财务风险诊断系统识别模型。模型在对样本企业是否具有财务风险的识别准确性达87%。A lot of researcheshavebeendone about financial risk prediction of Public Companies in China.The current methods pay more attention to improve the prediction accuracy of the model,but this paper is going to focus on the selection of financial ratios of the model.By selecting 148 companies as the research objects,among of which have loss in two consecutive years and normal companies,this paper focuses on five financial indicators which can reflect significant differences between problem companies and normal companies in the aspects of repayment,growth and operation.Based on logstic regression the identification model of enterprise financial distress diagnosis system is established.The accuracy of the model in identifying whether the sample enterprises have financial risks is 87%.

关 键 词：财务风险诊断 ST公司 LOGISTIC回归 财务指标 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学]