系统科学视角下北京市人口演变趋势  

The Trend of Population Evolution in Beijing from the Perspective of System Science

作　　者：王传生[1] 石夫磊 闫绍山 石贤贤 WANG Chuan-sheng;SHI Fu-lei;YAN Shao-shan;SHI Xian-xian(School of Information,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学信息学院,北京100070

出　　处：《系统科学学报》2021年第3期131-136,共6页Chinese Journal of Systems Science

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金(9182002);首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新项目“京津冀协同发展下人口变迁趋势及调控策略研究”。

摘　　要：近年来,北京市人口问题已经成为制约首都可持续发展的一个关键问题,实现对北京市人口规模的合理预测就显得尤为重要。从系统角度出发,构建了包含北京市各城区人口的系统动力学模型,对北京市现有的人口发展状态进行了模拟并进行了预测,并深入探讨了北京市现有人口的受教育程度、年龄分布以及从业人员的状态等。In recent years,Beijing’s population problem has become a key issue restricting the sustainable development of the capital.It is particularly important to achieve a reasonable forecast of the population size of Beijing.From the perspective of system,a system dynamics model including the population of various urban areas in Beijing was constructed.The existing population development status in Beijing was simulated and predicted,and the education level of the existing population in Beijing as well as the age distribution,and the status of employees were discussed.

关 键 词：人口演变 系统动力学 预测 

分 类 号：N949[自然科学总论—系统科学] C924.23[社会学—人口学]