2008—2017年中国香港居民出生期望寿命及死因变化趋势的Joinpoint回归分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis on the trend in Cause of Death and life expectancy at birth among Hong Kong China residents in 2008—2017

作　　者：甘立勤[1] 王荀[1] GAN Liqin;WANG Xun(Center for Disease Control and Prevention Longgang District,Shenzhen,China)

机构地区：[1]深圳市龙岗区疾病预防控制中心,广东深圳518172

出　　处：《中国校医》2021年第6期424-426,457,共4页Chinese Journal of School Doctor

摘　　要：目的了解中国香港居民2008—2017年出生期望寿命及死因变化趋势,预测未来的死因变化。方法通过中国香港特别行政区政府卫生防护中心、卫生署等获取香港居民2008—2017年出生期望寿命及死因登记数据,采用描述性分析和Joinpoint回归分析其全人群、各性别的死因变化趋势。结果2008—2017年中国香港特别行政区标化死亡率呈下降趋势,年度变化百分比(APC)为-2.4%(t=-13.533,P<0.01);男性出生期望寿命从2008年的79.4岁上升至2017年的81.9岁,平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)为0.3%(P<0.05),其中转折点出现在2013年,2008—2013年出生期望寿命增长较快,APC为0.4%(t=7.164,P<0.05),2013—2017年出生期望寿命增加速度减缓,APC为0.2%(t=2.841,P<0.05);女性出生期望寿命的变化平缓无转折点,APC为0.3%(t=11.652,P<0.05);自2013年肺炎取代心脏病成为全人群第二大死因,中国香港特别行政区死因顺位的前四位分别是恶性肿瘤、肺炎、心脏病和脑血管病,其中认知障碍症标化死亡率上升迅速,APC为5.4%(t=8.081,P<0.01);根据Joinpoint回归预测,至2022年认知障碍症将成为全人群死因的第六位,标化死亡率达8.0/10万。结论中国香港居民出生期望寿命呈延长趋势,而也随之变化,预测肺炎、认知障碍所致的死亡将会增加。Objective To analysis the trend in cause of death and life expectancy at birth among Hong Kong residents in 2008-2017.Methods Acquire data from Center for Health Protection of Hong Kong and analysis by Joinpoint regression model.Results From 2008-2017,the total standardized mortality rate kept declining APC=-2.4%(t=-13.533,P<0.001);the life expectancy at birth of male was increased from 79.4 to 81.9,AAPC=0.3%(P<0.05);the trend of life expectancy at birth(Male)had a Joinpoint in 2013,during 2008-2013 the life expectancy increased at APC=0.4%(t=7.164,P<0.05);in 2013-2017,the life expectancy increased at APC=0.2%(t=2.841,P<0.05);In 2013,pneumonia became the second main cause of death and the top four main cause of death among all residents were Tumor,pneumonia,heart diseases,cerebrovascular disease.The death cause by cognitive impairment increased rapidly APC=5.4%(t=8.081,P<0.01).According to the Joinpoint Regression predicting,cognitive impairment will be the 6 th main cause of death in 2023,standardized mortality rate equal to 8.0/105.Conclusion in the future Governor should take more action to control the death cause by pneumonia and cognitive impairment.

关 键 词：Joinpoint回归分析 死亡原因 预期寿命 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]