基于证据理论的港口竞争力评价与发展建议  

Competitiveness Evaluation and Development Suggestions for Ports Based on Evidence Theory

作　　者：谢新连[1] 朱云琪 田聪 XIE Xinlian;ZHU Yunqi;TIAN Cong(Logistics Research Institute,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学物流研究院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第8期1-6,24,共7页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0805309);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132019303)。

摘　　要：港口位于海运生态系统的核心层,对港口竞争力进行评价有助于掌握港口竞争优势及短板,从而提升港口竞争力,提升海运生态系统竞争力。港口竞争力评价是一项复杂的多属性评价问题,在深入分析港口竞争力影响因素的基础上,设计了考虑港城共荣的港口竞争力评价指标体系。采用标准离差率确定指标的权重,并通过证据推理法进行评价信息的融合,实现对港口竞争力的评价。以大连港和上海港为例,通过编程计算得到了两港口竞争力的评价结果,并进一步探索影响大连港、上海港港口竞争力水平增长驱动力的原因,为补齐竞争力发展短板提供相应建议。The port is the core of the maritime ecosystem,and evaluating competitiveness of the port is helpful to grasp the competitive advantages and disadvantages of port,so as to enhance the competitiveness of port and marine ecosystem.Port competitiveness evaluation is a complex multi-attribute evaluation problem.Based on the deep analysis on the influencing factors of port competition,a port competitiveness evaluation index system considering the integration development of city and port was designed.The standard deviation rate was used to determine the weight of the index,and the evidence theory was used for evaluation information integration,so as to realize the evaluation of port competitiveness.Taking Dalian Port and Shanghai Port as examples,the evaluation results of the competitiveness of the two ports were obtained through programming calculation,and the causes influencing Dalian port and Shanghai port competitiveness level growth driving force was further explored,which provided corresponding suggestions to make up for the short board of the competitiveness development.

关 键 词：港口工程 港口竞争力评价 港城共荣 标准离差率 证据理论 

分 类 号：U691[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程] F061.5[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]