农业机械化对中国种植业贡献率研究  

The contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to China’s crop industry

作　　者：吕雍琪 张宗毅 张萌 Lu Yong-qi;ZHANG Zong-yi;ZHANG Meng(Nanjing Institute of Agricultural Mechanization,Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210014,China)

机构地区：[1]农业农村部南京农业机械化研究所,江苏南京210014

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2021年第4期675-683,共9页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71973074);中国农业科学院创新工程所级任务(CAAS-NRAM-SJ-201903)。

摘　　要：在农业劳动力老龄化、减量化日益严重的背景下,农业机械化对保障农业生产能力和农产品供给安全、均衡产业发展以及提高国际竞争力日益重要,定量测算农业机械化对中国种植业的贡献率,有利于更加准确衡量其重要地位并展望未来。本文利用28个省份的省际面板数据,运用变系数固定效应模型,估计种植业生产的柯布—道格拉斯生产函数,分析农业机械化对各省种植业产出的贡献率,探讨农业机械化对中国种植业总产值增长率的贡献。结果表明,1979—1984年由于家庭联产承包责任制的普及,原有的大型机械不能适应小规模生产,机械化水平稍有下降。随着农业机械适应小规模生产,1985年机械化水平停止下降。2004年以后,随着国家对农业的重视以及对农业机械补贴力度的增大,综合机械化水平加速上涨,同时种植业总产值也不断增加。农业机械化促进了种植业的发展,在中国大部分省份的农业生产中发挥着较大的作用,1979—2018年农业机械化贡献率在30%以上的省份有5个。分省加总数据和全国合计数据计算结果均表明,历年全国农业机械化贡献率为正,且农业机械化对种植业总贡献率远高于化肥、土地和劳动等生产要素。其中全国合计数据表明2018年与1979年相比种植业总产值增量中有高达54.196%是由农业机械所贡献。因此,提出应丰富支持政策、加强农田和机耕道等基础设施建设,以及加强薄弱地区、薄弱领域的农业机械化水平,提高农业机械化发展质量等政策性建议。Under the background of the aging and reduction of the agricultural labor force,agricultural mechanization is increasingly important to ensure the safety of agricultural production capacity and supply of agricultural products,to maintain balanced development among different industries,and to improve international competitiveness.Based on a provincial panel data of 28 provinces in China and applying the fixed effect model,this paper estimated the Cobb-Douglas function of crop industry,calculated,and discussed the contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to the crop industry output in each province and China.Results show that the level of mechanization decreased slightly from 1979 to 1984 due to that the original large-scale machinery was not suitable for the new small-scale production mode with the popularization of the household responsibility system.After 2004,the central government attached great importance to agriculture and increased subsidies for purchasing agricultural machinery,which accelerated the rise of mechanization and increased the total output value of the crop industry.In most provinces of China,agricultural mechanization plays an important and positive contribution to the output of the crop industry from 1979 to 2018,even there were five provinces’contribution rates more than 30%.Both the calculation results of provincial data and national data show that the contribution rate of national agricultural mechanization to the crop industry was positive over the years,and the contribution rate of agricultural mechanization to the total output value of the crop industry was much higher than other factors,such as chemical fertilizer,land,and labor.Total national data also shows that:compared with 1979,agricultural machinery contributed as much as 54.196%of the total output value increment of the crop industry in 2018.Therefore,this paper suggests:to enhance supporting policies,to increase infrastructure construction such as well-facilitated farmland and tractor roads,to strengthen the level of a

关 键 词：农业机械化 贡献率 种植业 固定效应模型 COBB-DOUGLAS函数 劳动力转移 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]