大跨桥梁主梁失效概率分析的最优R-Vine Copula  

Optimal R-vine copula information fusion for failure probability analysis of long-span bridge girder

作　　者：樊学平 杨光红[2] 肖青凯 刘月飞 FAN Xue-ping;YANG Guang-hong;XIAO Qing-kai;LIU Yue-fei(Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China of the Ministry of Education,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730030,China;School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730030,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation,South China university of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学西部灾害与环境力学教育部重点实验室,兰州730030 [2]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,兰州730030 [3]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广州510641

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2021年第4期1296-1305,共10页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1511005);国家自然科学基金项目(51608243);中央高校基本科研业务费优秀青年教师科研创新项目(lzujbky-2020-55).

摘　　要：为合理分析大跨桥梁主梁的失效概率,考虑到多个控制监测点失效模式的相关性,提出了大跨桥梁主梁失效概率分析的信息融合新方法。利用极值应变信息,引入双变量Pair-Copula模型和R-Vine模型,结合多个控制监测点的功能函数,对监测点失效模式相关性进行最优Regular vine copula(R-Vine Copula)建模分析,融合一次二阶矩(FOSM)方法,进行失效模式相关的大跨桥梁主梁失效概率分析,通过在役桥梁监测数据对本文方法的合理性进行验证,并与其他分析方法进行比较。结果表明,考虑控制监测点失效模式相关性的大跨桥梁主梁失效概率分析的最优R-Vine Copula信息融合方法较为合理。To reasonably analyze the failure probability of the long-span bridge girder,considering the correlation among the failure modes of the multiple control monitoring points,a new data fusion method about the failure probability analysis for the long-span bridge girder is presented.With the extreme strain information,the optimal R-Vine copula model considering the correlation among the failure modes of the multiple control monitoring points is built with the corresponding performance functions,bivariate paircopula model and the optimal R-vine.Further,with the first order second moment(FOSM)method,the failure probability of the long-span bridge girder considering the correlation among the failure modes is analyzed,the feasibility of which is compared with the other analysis method using the monitoring data of the existing bridge.The results show that the optimal R-Vine copula information fusion method for the failure probability analysis of long-span bridge girder considering the correlation among failure modes is more reasonable.

关 键 词：结构工程 主梁 相关性 R-Vine Copula模型 一次二阶矩方法 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TU391[建筑科学—结构工程]