养老金改革的前景、挑战与对策  

Pension Reform:Prospects, Challenges and Solutions

作　　者：郑秉文[1,2] 董克用 赵耀辉[4] 房连泉[2,5] 朱俊生 张冰子 蒙克[8] 贾珅[9] Zheng Bingwen;Dong Keyong;Zhao Yaohui;Fang Lianquan;Zhu Junsheng;Zhang Bingzi;Meng Ke;Jia Shen

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学政府管理学院 [2]中国社会科学院世界社保研究中心 [3]清华大学社会科学学院 [4]北京大学国家发展研究院 [5]中国社会科学院社会发展战略研究院 [6]清华大学五道口金融学院中国保险与养老金研究中心 [7]国务院发展研究中心社会发展研究部研究室 [8]清华大学公共管理学院 [9]国务院发展研究中心发展战略和区域经济研究部研究室

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2021年第4期9-31,4,共24页International Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“加快建立基本养老保险全国统筹制度的改革路径研究”(项目编号:20AGL027;主持人:房连泉);国家社会科学基金青年项目“养老、就业和家庭政策统筹协调机制的研究”(项目编号:16CGL045;主持人:蒙克)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：2021年5月13日,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所《国际经济评论》编辑部、中国世界经济学会联合组织召开"养老金改革的前景、挑战与对策"研讨会。受到新冠肺炎疫情的不利影响,2020年中国首次出现了养老金收不抵支的情况,未来三十年人口和赡养率的变化将进一步导致养老金缺口越来越大。养老金体制还存在制度碎片化、转移接续和便携性、地区间社保财务不平衡、竞争不公平等问题。养老金改革在于供给端开源、需求端节流。在供给端,实现基本养老保险全国统筹,完善划转国有资本充实社保基金制度,更关键的措施是增强养老金供给端的多层次、多支柱。第一支柱回归保基本,第二、三支柱来增加养老金待遇水平,同时权衡资本市场风险,警惕投资陷阱。在需求端,完善城镇职工基本养老金待遇合理调整机制,渐进延迟退休年龄。养老金改革应体现经济适应性,考虑企业的成本与个人的经济承受能力,不致造成市场扭曲、不致妨碍劳动力正常流动、不致促使竞争性企业因用工成本过高而削减工作岗位、不致减少人们对劳动力市场参与及其工作努力程度。最后,即便基本养老金可持续,也不意味着筹资与待遇水平越高越好。The editorial board of the International Economic Review journal under the Institute of World Economics and Politics of CASS and the China Society of World Economics jointly held a symposium on May 13,2021,discussing prospects of China’s pension reform,the challenges it will face,and solutions.Affected by the novel coronavirus pandemic,China for the first time encountered pension deficit in 2020;in the coming thirty years,the changing population and age dependency ratio are set to lead to wider pension gap.The pension system also faces some challenges,such as systemic fragmentation,continuity and convenience of pension transfer,inter-regional pension finance imbalance,and inadequate competition.The pension reform should be carried out to increase funding sources for the pension fund and reduce pension spending.On the supply side,funds for basic pension should largely be collected at the State level;the system of transferring part of State capital to replenish the pension fund should be improved;and it is more crucial to establish a multi-level funding mechanism for pension fund.At the lowest level,focus should be put on ensuring basic pension guarantee;at higher levels,the focus should be put on ensuring more funds be paid to pensioners;at the same time,attention must be paid to capital market risks to avoid investment traps.On the demand side,the mechanism of adjusting basic pension payment to urban retirees should be improved and the minimal retirement age can be gradually raised.The pension reform should be in line with economic situation,and the cost affordability of enterprises and the financial affordability of individuals should be taken into consideration,so that there would not be such problems as market distortion,blocked labor flow,job cuts by enterprises in highly competitive industries because of excessive labor costs,falling labor participation,and worsening working attitude.Finally,even if the basic pension fund is sustainable,it does not mean that it is an optimal option to continually raise con

关 键 词：养老金改革 养老金待遇 世界经济学会 经济适应性 工作努力程度 社保基金 全国统筹 市场扭曲 

分 类 号：F842.67[经济管理—保险]