家庭债务、房地产价格渠道与中国经济波动  

Household Debt,Housing Price Channel and Business Cycle in China

作　　者：孟宪春[1] 张屹山[1] MENG Xianchun;ZHANG Yishan(Business School,Jilin University)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院、数量经济研究中心,130012

出　　处：《经济研究》2021年第5期75-90,共16页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新时期中国经济长期稳定增长的潜力与实现路径研究”(17JJD790009)的资助;中国博士后科学基金面上项目“居民债务违约、系统性金融风险与最优宏观审慎政策:基于异质性家庭视角”(2020M681027)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：近几年中国出现了家庭债务持续增长和经济增速放缓的现象,如何处理家庭债务与宏观经济之间的关系成为当前宏观调控面临的重要问题。本文通过构建家庭对住房具有低风险厌恶偏好特征且多部门同时存在金融摩擦的动态随机一般均衡模型,探究了中国家庭债务对宏观经济的影响机制。研究发现:第一,在居民对住房低风险厌恶的偏好下,家庭债务扩张促进住房需求增加过程中住房的边际效用缓慢下降,导致家庭对住房需求保持强劲态势并带来房价上涨,房价上涨又通过住房抵押渠道促进家庭债务进一步扩张,使得家庭债务与房价之间形成闭环正反馈机制。第二,在房地产价格渠道的传导下,家庭债务扩张挤出居民消费、企业信贷供给和生产投资,引起宏观经济波动。第三,受信贷市场顺周期性的影响,居民部门贷款价值比越高,家庭债务和宏观经济之间的联动幅度越大,因此抑制家庭部门加杠杆能够平抑由家庭债务扩张引起的经济波动。The financial crisis caused by the large number of subprime mortgage defaults in 2007 propelled the U.S.economy into the Great Recession.The crisis has sparked new questions about the relation between household debt and the business cycle.In the past decade,the Chinese economy has witnessed a substantial expansion of household debt,accompanied by a great housing boom and a slowdown in economic growth.Moreover,China’s macro data also shows that household debt positively co-moves with housing prices in the same direction,while housing prices co-move with household consumption,corporate credit and investment in the opposite direction.The household debt expansion affects the real economy primarily via housing price channel.However,compared with developed economies,the macro effect of housing price fluctuations in China is significantly different.Therefore,the theoretical model focusing on the impact of household debt on the developed economies is difficult to explain the co-movements between household debt and China’s business cycle.This paper aims to fill part of this gap by modeling the co-movements between household debt and fluctuations in China’s business cycle in a quantitative general equilibrium framework.Specifically,this paper extended the standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium(NK-DSGE)model in three ways.First,based on the reality that the underdeveloped financial system causes housing assets to become desirable safe stores of value for Chinese households,the model assumes that household members have a relatively low risk aversion with respect to housing services.Second,financial frictions in households,enterprises and commercial banks coexist and interact,which affects the model’s equilibrium.Third,the model incorporates a household credit expansion shock that can generate co-movements between household debt and the housing price,which are a driving force behind the impact of household debt on the business cycle.We present three main findings.First,with a relatively low hous

关 键 词：家庭债务 房地产价格渠道 经济波动 金融摩擦 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23F124