基于DSSAT CERES-Wheat模型的未来40年冬小麦最适播期分析  

Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Next 40 Years Based on DSSAT-CERES-Wheat Model

作　　者：胡亚南 梁驹 梁社芳 李世娟[1] 诸叶平[1] 鄂越[1] HU Yanan;LIANG Ju;LIANG Shefang;LI Shijuan;ZHU Yeping;E Yue(Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences/Key Laboratory of Agri-informa‐tion Service Technology,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China;College of Engineer‐ing,Mathematics and Physical Sciences,University of Exeter,Exeter EX44QF,UK;Key Laboratory of Agricul‐tural Remote Sensing,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业农村部信息服务技术重点实验室,北京100081 [2]英国埃克塞特大学工程、数学与物理科学学院,埃克塞特,EX44QF英国 [3]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所/农业农村部农业遥感重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《智慧农业（中英文）》2021年第2期68-76,共9页Smart Agriculture

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0300200);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2021XK09);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(CAAS-ASTIP-2016-AII)。

摘　　要：在适播期内播种是促进小麦高产稳产的关键管理技术。为应对未来气候变化带来的不利影响,提高小麦高产优质主产区的冬小麦产量,本研究选取黄淮海和江淮地区作为研究区,并在研究区内选择3个代表站点,利用DSSATCERES-Wheat模型在基准时段和未来40年分别开展了4种典型浓度路径的温室气体排放气候情景(RCPs)、51个播期处理的模型模拟试验,以明确未来冬小麦生育期内气候要素和最适播期变化特征,定量分析采用最适播期管理措施对冬小麦的增产效应。分析试验结果表明:未来冬小麦生育期内气候特征呈现暖干化的趋势;冬小麦生育期天数随温度升高而缩短,缩短天数在研究区地理空间上自北向南递增;最适播期随温度升高而推迟,在各时段、各情景下均随纬度减小而推迟;相对于基准时段,3个站点2030s时段的最适播期推迟最大天数分别自北向南递增5 d、8 d和13 d,2050s时段最适播期较2030s时段有不同程度的推迟,且各站点以2050s时段RCP8.5情景下的推迟天数最多;采取最适播期播种的管理措施,在3个站点均有不同程度的增产效应,黄淮海北片的增产效应最小,黄淮海南片和江淮地区增产幅度相对较高,集中在2%~4%之间。因此,未来黄淮海和江淮地区可采取推迟播期、选择适播期的管理措施来应对气候变暖情况,提高冬小麦产量。Climate change requires crop adaptation.Plantint at the suitable date is a key management technology to promote crop yield and address the impact of climate change.Wheat is one of the most important staple crops in China.Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai regions are high-quality and high-quantity planting areas for wheat.To deal with the adverse effects of climate change and promote the winter wheat yield in Huang-Huai-Hai and Jiang-Huai regions,the optimum sowing date was identified by creating a wheat simulation with DSSAT CERES-Wheat model.The simulation experiment was designed with 51 manage-ment inputs of sowing date and 4 climate scenarios(RCPs)under baseline period(1985-2004)and 40 years in future for three representative stations in the study region.The optimum sowing data of winter wheat was corresponding to the simulation set with highest yield in each site.The characters of changes in climate factors during the growth period and the optimum sowing date among the different period were detected,and the yield increase planted at the optimum sowing date was quantified.The re-sults showed that,in the future,the climate during winter wheat growth period showed a trend of warming and drying would shorten the growth period.The optimum sowing date would be postponed with the rise of temperature,and the decrease of lati-tude in all periods and under various climate scenarios.Relative to the baseline period,the maximum delay days of the optimal sowing date increased from north to south during 2030s,which were 5 days,8 days and 13 days at the three representative sta-tions,respectively.The optimum sowing times in 2050s were delayed in different degrees compared with that in 2030s.The largest postponed days at each station was at the RCP8.5 scenario in 2050s.Adopting the management of optimum planting date could mitigate climatic negative effects and was in varying degrees of yield increasing effect at three sites.The smallest increase occurred in Huang-Huai-Hai north region,while Huang-Huai-Hai south region and Jiang-

关 键 词：冬小麦 最适播期 气候变化 RCPs 作物模型 黄淮海 江淮 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]