随机物理集合预报研究进展  

Review of the Ensemble Prediction Using Stochastic Physics

作　　者：陈超辉 王勇 何宏让 陈祥国 庄潇然 姜勇强 Chen Chaohui;Wang Yong;He Hongrang;Chen Xiangguo;Zhuang Xiaoran;Jiang Yongqiang(Institute of Meteorology and Oceanography,National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410073;Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics,Vienna 1190;Weather Observatory of Jiangsu Province,Nanjing 210008)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学气象海洋学院,长沙410073 [2]奥地利气象局,Vienna 1190 [3]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第3期48-57,共10页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重大基础研究计划(2017YFC1501803);国家自然科学基金项目(41975128,41875060)。

摘　　要：考虑模式不确定性的集合预报是集合预报理论研究与业务应用的重要方面。模式不确定性主要源于大气在时间与空间方面的数理简化与有限数值计算,以及物理过程本身的非完美构造。当前盛行方法包括多模式法、多物理过程法以及随机物理法。本文旨在梳理随机物理集合预报研究进展、应用效果、主要方法、存在问题等方面,归纳相关理论和技术试验结果及科学问题,并探讨未来值得探索与研究的方向,为随机物理集合预报深入应用,以及集合预报相关理论从业人员提供参考与借鉴。Model uncertainty is an important aspect of theoretical research and operational application of ensemble forecast.The model uncertainty mainly comes from the mathematical simplification and finite numerical calculation of the atmosphere in time and space,and the imperfect structure of the physical process itself.The prevailing methods include multi-model approach,multi-physics approach and stochastic physics method.The purpose of this paper is to sort out the progress,application,methods,existing problems and other aspects of ensemble forecasting based on stochastic physical processes,sum up the relevant theoretical and technical results and scientific problems,and explore the future directions for work worthy of exploration and research,so as to provide reference for the in-depth application of stochastic physical ensemble forecast.

关 键 词：随机扰动参数化倾向方案 随机动能补偿方案 随机扰动参数化方案 模式不确定性 对流允许尺度集合预报 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]