中小尺度对流系统的高分辨率数值模拟近况和未来挑战  

High-Resolution Modeling of Convective Storms:Progress and Future Challenges

作　　者：黎慧琦 张大林[2,3] Li Huiqi;Zhang Dalin(Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510640;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science,University of Maryland,College Park,MD,USA 20742)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州510640 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]美国马里兰大学大气海洋系,马里兰20742

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第3期75-91,共17页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点科技攻关项目(2018YFC1507400);中国气象科学研究院科学发展基金(2020KJ022);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2019LASW-B03)。

摘　　要：随着高速、大容量、并行计算能力的迅速增长和中尺度数值模式的不断完善,近年来不断涌现使用1 km乃至次千米网格距开展中、小尺度对流系统的数值模拟研究。这些数值模拟工作展现出目前观测手段还无法得到的动力学一致的高分辨率气象信息,大大提高了对一些中、小尺度对流系统内部结构和演变的理解。但高分辨率数值模拟的未来发展也面临着不少问题和挑战。首先回顾提高模式分辨率至1 km乃至次千米模拟中、小尺度对流系统的进展,并综述目前在高分辨率数值模拟中的资料同化和物理过程处理方法,同时指出中尺度模式中处理积云对流、大气边界层和辐射过程时值得注意的分辨率“灰色区”,然后介绍使用1 km和次千米分辨率模拟中、小尺度对流系统的几篇有代表性的工作。最后讨论高分辨率数值模拟的未来发展和挑战。With the rapid growth of fast,massive parallel computing power and steady improvement in mesoscale numerical models,there have been a growing number of numerical modeling studies of mesoscale convective systems(MCSs)using kilometer and sub-kilometer grid resolutions.These simulations have provided tremendous high resolution,dynamically consistent meteorological information that could not be obtained from current observations,and they have greatly improved our understanding of the internal structures and evolution of MCSs.However,some significant challenges remain in the future development of high-resolution numerical modeling.This paper reviews the progress that has been made in modeling convective storms with progressively increasing spatial resolution to one kilometer and sub-kilometer,and then introduces convective-scale data assimilation techniques and the approaches to the implementation of some important physical processes into mesoscale numerical models,including the“gray zone”problem associated with moist convection,planetary boundary layer,and radiation processes.Some typical studies on high-resolution(kilometer or sub-kilometer scale)simulations of convective storms are also presented.The future development and challenges in high-resolution simulation are finally discussed.

关 键 词：中小尺度对流系统 高分辨率数值模拟 资料同化 物理过程灰色区 

分 类 号：P445[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]