国际气候变化科学评估中所反映的气候变化科学的重要进展  

Reviewing Progress in Climate Change Science from Perspective of IPCC Assessments

作　　者：王倩[1,2] 翟盘茂 Wang Qian;Zhai Panmao(State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第3期113-118,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1507700);中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF202106)。

摘　　要：政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)历次评估报告的进展表明:1)人类对于气候系统变化的科学认知在不断加深,全球变暖是毋庸置疑的;工业化时代以来,人类活动可能已经引起了1 ℃的增暖。2)气候系统观测不断完善,观测资料和再分析资料的空间覆盖范围以及时间尺度均明显提高;气候系统模式分辨率不断提高,以及更为复杂的生物地球化学过程的加入,使得模式发展经历了从气候系统模式到地球系统模式的进步。3)与以往的评估报告相比,在第六次评估报告(AR6)的规划中,以解决问题为导向,加强了对于水循环变化、区域气候变化信息以及极端天气气候事件检测归因的评估内容。The progress of the previous IPCC assessment reports indicate that human’s scientific cognition of climate system changes is constantly deepening,and global warming is unequivocal.Since the industrial age,human activities may have caused approximately 1 ℃.With the continuous improvement of climate system observations,the spatial coverage and time scale of observation data and reanalysis data have increased significantly.In terms of climate system models,the increase in resolution and the addition of more complex biogeochemical processes,making the model development has experienced progress from climate system model to earth system model.Compared with previous assessment reports,the sixth assessment report (AR6) will focus on problem-solving-oriented thinking,and strengthen the assessment content of water cycle changes,regional climate change and the detection and attribution of extreme weather and climate events.

关 键 词：IPCC 气候变化 科学认知 发展 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]