气候模式与水文模拟关键技术研究进展及展望  

The Research Progress and Prospects of Climate Model and Hydrological Simulation Key Technology

作　　者：张琴 张利平[1,3] 邓瑶 王书霞 肖宜 Zhang Qin;Zhang Liping;Deng Yao;Wang Shuxia;Xiao Yi(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072;Kunming Engineering Cooperation Limited,Kunming 650041;Hubei Key Laboratory of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction,Wuhan 430072)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072 [2]中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,昆明650041 [3]海绵城市建设水系统科学湖北省重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第3期126-134,共9页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890824);国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFA0603704)。

摘　　要：近几十年来国内外研究者针对全球气候变化与水文模拟相关的科学问题进行了大量的研究,因此有必要对其进行系统的回顾。首先以降水和气温为例,回顾了历史时期观测到的气候变化;然后结合最新的CMIP6计划,简要叙述了气候模式研究与水文模拟研究的关键技术方法,包含气候模式的研究进展、气候变化情景的构建技术、气候模式的评估与未来的预估、水文模型的选择和气候模式-水文模型的连接技术;同时拓展到气候变化影响评估的不确定性来源及量化方法;最后讨论了气候变化与水文模拟研究中存在的问题,并结合国家和行业发展需求提出了研究展望。In recent decades,researchers have conducted a lot of research on scientific issues related to global climate change and hydrological simulation,so it is necessary to conduct a systematic review of it.Firstly,the climate change from observations taking air temperature and precipitation as examples was presented.Then,combined with CMIP6,the key techniques and methods of research on climate models and hydrological simulation were briefly described,which included the research progress of climate model,the construction technology of climate change scenario,the evaluation and future projection of climate models,the selection of hydrological model and the connection technology of climate model and hydrological model.The uncertainty sources and quantitative methods of climate change impact assessment are further introduced.Finally,the problems existing in climate change and hydrological simulation research are discussed,and research prospects are put forward in light of the development needs of the country and industry.

关 键 词：气候变化 水文模型 降尺度方法 气候模式 不确定性 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]