中央气象台航空气象预报技术系统进展  

Progress on Aviation Meteorological Forecast Technology System of National Meteorological Centre

作　　者：杨波 蔡雪薇 刘鑫华 周康辉 张小玲 林隐静 毛旭 万子为 Yang Bo;Cai Xuewei;Liu Xinhua;Zhou Kanghui;Zhang Xiaoling;Lin Yingjing;Mao Xu;Wan Ziwei(National Meteorological Centre,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2021年第3期145-154,共10页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：航空气象预报技术是天气预报技术中涵盖范围最广、技术难点最多、要求最高的集成技术之一。国家气象中心基于气象大数据云平台与智能网格技术,面向抢险救灾、国防安全、民用航空、通用航空等需求初步建立了航空气象预报服务咨询技术体系。重点介绍了机场精细化天气预报、机场进近区危险天气预报和航路危险天气预报技术。阐述了中国气象局大数据云平台、智能网格技术、全球/区域高分辨率数值模式、深度学习、多源资料融合以及机场情报信息等在上述航空气象预报技术建设的重要作用。介绍了基于智能网格的能见度、降水、风等要素的机场精细化预报技术;采用传统外推及深度学习等方法,开展多源数据融合的强对流短时临近预报集成技术;基于高分辨数值模式的机场进近区低空风切变的潜势预报技术;以及基于我国全球/区域数值模式研发的颠簸、积冰、对流等航路危险天气预报技术等。分析了我国智能网格技术体系对航空气象专业服务的能力与不足,并对未来航空气象专业服务技术发展做出展望。Aeronautical meteorological support technology is one kind of the Integration technology which is supported by the most comprehensive technologies,the most technical difficulties and the highest technical requirements in weather forecasting technology.Based on the meteorological big data cloud platform and smart grid technology,The National Meteorological Centre has initially established an aeronautical meteorological advisory service forecast technology system for disaster relief,national defense security,civil aviation,and general aviation.This paper focuses on the most important airport refined weather forecasting for aeronautical meteorological service,airport approaching area and route dangerous weather forecasting technologies in this technical system.The important role of China Meteorological Administration big data cloud platform,intelligent grid technology,global and regional high-resolution numerical model,deep learning,multi-source data fusion and airport intelligence information on the construction of aeronautical meteorological technology system is expounded.The refined airport forecasting technologies based on smart grid for visibility,precipitation and wind are introduced.The methods of traditional extrapolation and deep learning of multi-source data fusion are used to out the severe convection short-term forecast integration technology;the potential forecasting technology of low-altitude wind shear in dangerous weather forecasting technologies such as turbulent,ice accretion and convection are developed based on Chinese global/regional numerical model.The ability and deficiency of Chinese intelligent grid technology system for aviation meteorological professional services are analyzed,and the future development of aviation meteorological professional service technology is expected.

关 键 词：智能网格 航空气象 机场精细化预报 强对流 低空风切变 颠簸 积冰 

分 类 号：V321.2[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]