台风目标观测研究进展回顾  

Review of the Research Progress in Targeted Observing for Typhoons

作　　者：刘德强[1,2,3,4] 冯杰 丁瑞强 李建平 LIU Deqiang;FENG Jie;DING Ruiqiang;LI Jianping(Fujian Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350001,China;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350001,China;Wuyishan National Climatological Observatory,Wuyishan Fujian 354306,China;Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,Fudan University,Shanghai 200438,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Progress and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(FDOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;Laboratory for Ocean Dynamics and Climate,Pilot Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology,Qingdao 266237,China)

机构地区：[1]福建省气象台,福建福州350001 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350001 [4]武夷山国家气候观象台,福建武夷山354306 [5]复旦大学大气与海洋科学系,上海200438 [6]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [7]中国海洋大学深海圈层与地球系统前沿科学中心/物理海洋教育部重点实验室/海洋高等研究院,山东青岛266100 [8]青岛海洋科学与技术国家实验室海洋动力过程与气候功能实验室,山东青岛266237

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2021年第6期564-578,共15页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金面上项目“台湾海峡地区台风强度可预报性全局特征研究”(编号:2020J01100);灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题“台湾海峡台风局部气候态敏感区研究”(编号:2020LASW-B10)资助。

摘　　要：台风目标观测对于弥补常规观测资料不足和提升台风数值预报技巧等具有重要意义。总结了2类理论方法的发展过程和优缺点:基于伴随的非线性方法能够较好地刻画非线性项的影响,而基于集合的方法在计算速度上更具有优势。同时回顾了一些能够代表当前气象观测水平的新装备和新技术在中国近海登陆台风外场观测试验中的应用,并从个例分析和统计分析两个角度总结了开展台风目标观测的有效性。通过总结发现,切线性近似、模式误差、度量范数和集合成员个数等都是影响台风目标观测的主要因素,它们可能会导致识别得到的台风敏感区之间存在一定差异,因此不能被忽略。未来应该更加关注台风强度目标观测的研究,在此基础上进一步推动非线性方法和数值模式的发展,并探索能够适合我国业务实际情况的台风目标观测实施方案。Targeted observing for typhoons would be helpful in both the scientific endeavor and practical significance to making up the lack of conventional observations and improving numerical prediction skills.Relevant developments of two clusters of theoretical methods were summarized,and the advantages as well as the disadvantages were compared. The methods involving adjoint model can better describe the influence of nonlinear errors,while the methods based on ensembles save more computing resources. The applications of some new observation instruments and platforms which represent the current most advanced observation technology to the field campaigns for typhoons landing in China were overviewed. Then the feasibility of targeted observing for typhoon was summarized from two perspectives of individual case and multiple individual cases. Moreover,it is found that factors including tangent linearity hypothesis,model defects,selected metrics,and ensemble numbers may lead to significant differences in locating the sensitivity areas of typhoons,which should not be neglected. Future research directions should highlight the applications of targeted observing to typhoon intensity,the further developments of nonlinear methods and numerical models,and the implement schemes of typhoon targeted observing that is suitable for the meteorological operations in China.

关 键 词：台风 目标观测 观测平台 外场试验 

分 类 号：P457.5[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]