2007-2019年山东省短时强降水时空分布特征  

Spatio-temporal distribution of short-time severe precipitation in Shandong from 2007 to 2019

作　　者：赵海军 曹洁[3] 潘玲 王庆华 曹张驰 毛国荣 ZHAO Haijun;CAO Jie;PAN Ling;WANG Qinghua;CAO Zhangchi;MAO Guorong(Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong,Jinan 250031;Linyi Meteorological Bureau,Linyi 276004;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;Rizhao Meteorological Bureau,Rizhao 276800,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东济南250031 [2]临沂市气象局,山东临沂276004 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [4]日照市气象局,山东日照276800

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2021年第2期149-155,共7页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(91937301);山东省气象局重点科研项目(2017sdqxz09);山东省气象局预报员专项(SDYBY2018-13)。

摘　　要：选用山东123个国家级地面气象观测站2007-2019年地面逐小时降水资料,分析短时强降水分布特征,主要结论如下:1)其间共有695个短时强降水日、3337个短时强降水时次和6257个短时强降水样本,基于排序法确定山东省极端短时强降水阈值为71.2 mm·h^(-1),鲁东南地区阈值最高,鲁中地区阈值最低。2)各站年均发生3.9次短时强降水天气,鲁东南地区短时强降水和极端短时强降水发生频次最多,半岛地区短时强降水发生最少,鲁西南地区极端短时强降水发生最少。3)短时强降水集中出现在6月中旬至8月下旬,又以8月上旬最多。4)日变化显著,呈现典型“双峰”特征,主要集中在午后至傍晚,其次是后半夜;6月中旬至8月下旬傍晚和后半夜发生短时强降水的可能性大,需重点关注。Using the hourly precipitation data of national meteorological stations in Shandong from 2007 to 2019,the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of short-time severe precipitation are analyzed.The results are as follows.There are 695 short-time severe precipitation days,3337 short-time severe precipitation hours and 6257 short-time severe precipitation samples.Based on the sorting method,the extreme short-time severe precipitation threshold is 71.2 mm·h^(-1).The highest threshold is in southeastern Shandong and the lowest is in central Shandong.The average annual occurrence times of short-time severe precipitation are 3.9.The maximum frequency of short-time severe precipitation is in southeastern Shandong,the minimum is in Shandong peninsula.The maximum frequency of extreme short-time severe precipitation is in southeastern Shandong,the minimum is in southwestern Shandong.Short-time severe precipitation occurs mainly from mid-June to late August,and the most is in early August.The diurnal variation has double peaks,precipitation concentrate in the afternoon to evening,and then in late night.It is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of short-time severe precipitation around the evening and late night from mid-June to late August.

关 键 词：短时强降水 分位数 极端性 日变化 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]