基于直觉正态云和影响图的舰船建造风险评价方法研究  

Research on Warship Construction Risk Method Based on Intuitionistic Normal Cloud and Image Map

作　　者：巩军[1] 胡涛[1] 赵俊[2] 安德红 GONG Jun;HU Tao;ZHAO Jun;AN Dehong(Department of Management Engineering and Equipment Economics,Naval University of Engineering,Wuhan 430033,China;The No.92108 th Troop of PLA,Zhoushan 316000,China)

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程与装备经济系,武汉430033 [2]中国人民解放军92108部队,浙江舟山316000

出　　处：《兵器装备工程学报》2021年第8期64-73,共10页Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71501183)。

摘　　要：针对舰船建造过程中风险多向传导耦合、扩散放大并产生连锁反应的问题,定义了最小任务单元、最佳风险辨识单元、模块工序等概念,给出了基于WBS-RBS的风险识别方法。为了解决用精确隶属度表示模糊事物的不彻底问题并进一步厘清风险传导关系,提出了将双语言决策变量转化为直觉正态云信息的步骤和基于全景式影响图的风险传导评价方法,在此基础上,基于蒙特卡洛模拟确定了风险比较与定级步骤,从而形成了一套完备的舰船建造过程风险识别、传导、评价与定级的方法。最后,通过算例分析,验证了该方法的有效性与实用性。Aiming at the problem of multi-directional risk conduction coupling,diffusion amplification and chain reaction in the process of ship construction,the concepts of minimum task unit,optimal risk identification unit and module process are defined,and a risk identification method based on WBS-RBS was proposed.In order to solve the incomplete problem of representing fuzzy things with accurate membership degree and further clarify the risk transmission relationship,the paper proposed a new risk identification method based on WBS-RBS.The steps of transforming linguistic decision variables into intuitionistic normal cloud information and the risk transmission evaluation method based on panoramic influence diagram.On this basis,the steps of risk comparison and grading were determined based on Monte Carlo simulation,thus forming a complete set of risk identification,transmission,evaluation and grading methods of ship construction process.The effectiveness and practicability of the method were verified by an example.

关 键 词：直觉正态云 影像图 风险评价 舰船 蒙特卡洛模拟 风险定级 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]