基于事故树理论的堤防溃口现场抢险方案错误实例分析  

Analysis on on-site flood relief scheme’s error cases of dike breach based on fault tree theory

作　　者：潘传柏 马玉洁 杨梦云 PAN Chuanbai;MA Yujie;YANG Mengyun(Jingzhou City Water Conservancy and Hydropower Survey and Design Institute,Jingzhou 434000,China;Jingzhou Yangtze River Administration Bureau,Gongan Branch,Jingzhou 434300,China;Nanjing Minghui Construction Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211200,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市水利水电勘测设计院,湖北荆州434000 [2]荆州市长江河道管理局公安分局,湖北荆州434300 [3]南京明辉建设有限公司,江苏南京211200

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2021年第8期24-28,共5页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：为了避免因一线技术人员现场抢险方案的错误判断而耽误抢险时间,或因技术错误和抢险方案制定不及时而导致溃口,根据防汛抢险实践和相关溃口失事案例,应用事故树分析法建立了现场抢险方案错误事故树图。依据事故树分析基本原理,对堤防溃口的现场抢险方案错误实例进行了定性、定量分析。结果表明:现场抢险方案错误共有7种事故模式,现场抢险方案的前瞻性、综合性、针对性和有效性是防范现场抢险方案错误的侧重点及主要控制方向。In order to avoid the delay of rescue time due to the mistakes of the on-site flood relief schemes,and even causing breaches because of technical errors and untimely rescue plans made by on-site technicians,the fault tree diagram of the on-site rescue schemes is established through fault tree analysis method according to the flood control and relief practice and the related breach cases.The wrong fault tree diagram of on-site flood relief schemes is analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively based on the dike breach cases according to the principals of fault tree analysis method.The results show that there are seven error modes of on-site flood relief schemes,and the fore⁃sight,comprehensiveness,pertinence and effectiveness of on-site flood relief plans are the key points and the main control directions to effectively prevent the errors of on-site flood relief plans.

关 键 词：堤防溃口 事故树理论 定性分析 定量分析 防汛抢险 

分 类 号：TV871.3[水利工程—水利水电工程]