自由贸易协定对贸易政策不确定性的影响研究  

A Study on the Impact of Free Trade Agreements on Trade Policy Uncertainty

作　　者：汪亚楠 王海成 张夏[4] Wang Yanan;Wang Haicheng;Zhang Xia

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学经济与金融学院 [2]华南理工大学金融工程研究中心 [3]国家发展改革委产业经济与技术经济研究所 [4]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《宏观经济研究》2021年第7期26-37,共12页Macroeconomics

基　　金：重庆市哲学社科规划项目(2019BS047);全国统计科学研究一般项目(2020LY066);国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073142);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金联合基金青年项目(2019A1515110169)的资助。

摘　　要：本文运用2002—2014年高度精细化的微观贸易数据,从多个维度测算了贸易政策不确定性,实证考察了自由贸易协定对贸易政策不确定性的影响。研究发现:缔结自由贸易协定降低了贸易政策不确定性,相比之下,贸易政策不确定性在FTA生效之后的下降幅度更大。具体而言,从国别效应来看,贸易政策不确定性在发展中的FTA伙伴国的下降幅度更大;从金融危机事件来看,贸易政策不确定性在金融危机之后的下降幅度更大;从所有制效应来看,本土企业的贸易政策不确定性下降幅度大于外资企业;从生产技术效应来看,中高技术出口品的贸易政策不确定性下降幅度大于低技术出口品;从要素禀赋效应来看,资本密集型出口品的贸易政策不确定性下降幅度大于劳动密集型出口品。Using highly refined micro trade data from 2002-2014,this paper measures trade policy uncertainty in several dimensions and empirically examines the impact of FTAs on trade policy uncertainty.It is found that the conclusion of FTAs reduces trade policy uncertainty,compared to a larger decline in trade policy uncertainty after the FTA comes into effect.Specifically,in terms of country effects,trade policy uncertainty decreases more in developing FTA partners;in terms of financial crisis events,trade policy uncertainty decreases more after the financial crisis;in terms of ownership effects,trade policy uncertainty decreases more for local firms than for foreign firms;in terms of production technology effects,trade policy uncertainty decreases more for medium and high technology exports in terms of the production technology effect,the decline in trade policy uncertainty is greater for medium-and high-tech exports than for low-tech exports;in terms of the factor endowment effect,the decline in trade policy uncertainty is greater for capital-intensive exports than for labor-intensive exports.

关 键 词：自由贸易协定 贸易政策不确定性 P&S方法 H&L方法 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易] F741[经济管理—产业经济]