嫩江下游多变量水文干旱特征研究  

Research on Multi-Variable Hydrological Drought Characteristics of the Lower Nenjiang River Basin

作　　者：华悦 叶磊[1] 张海荣 左海阳[4] 周惠成[1] HUA Yue;YE Lei;ZHANG Hairong;ZUO Haiyang;ZHOU Huicheng(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian,116000,China;China Yangtze Power Co.,Ltd.,Yichang 443133,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science,Yichang 443133,China;Songliao Water Resources Commission,MWR,Changchun 130021,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116000 [2]中国长江电力股份有限公司,湖北宜昌443133 [3]智慧长江与水电科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443133 [4]水利部松辽水利委员会,吉林长春130021

出　　处：《水文》2021年第4期88-94,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2017YFC0406001);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709033,51909010)。

摘　　要：基于嫩江江桥站、大赉站1953~2016年逐月径流数据,采用SRI干旱指数研究嫩江下游水文干旱特征。通过游程理论提取干旱历时、烈度、峰值三个干旱特征变量,选取多种常见概率分布和Copula函数,通过拟合优度指标分析选择出最优的边缘分布与Copula函数,在此基础上分析三个干旱特征变量的联合、同现重现期。结果表明,江桥站、大赉站最严重的干旱均发生在1971~1980年;1990年前江桥站水文干旱情况较大赉站严重,而1990年后,随着一系列引水工程的修建,大赉站水文干旱情况逐步加重并且严重程度超过江桥站;由重现期计算结果分析可知,位于下游的大赉站更易发生历时长、烈度大、峰值高的水文干旱事件。This paper applied the SRI index to study the hydrological drought characteristics of the lower Nenjing River Basin based on the monthly runoff data at Jiangqiao and Dalai stations from 1953 to 2016.Three drought characteristics(duration,intensity and intensity peak)were extracted based on the run theory.And the optimal marginal distribution and Copula function were selected from a variety of common probability distributions and Copula functions through the fitting optimization index.On this basis,the joint and co-occurrence return periods of the three drought characteristic variables were analyzed.The results show that the most severe drought at both station occurred during 1971-1980.Before 1990,the hydrological drought situation at Jiangqiao station was more serious than that at Dalai station.However,with the construction of a series of water diversion projects,the hydrological drought situation at Dalai station has gradually worsened and its severity has exceeded than that at Jiangqiao station since 1990.The Dalai station is more prone to hydrological drought events with a long duration,high intensity and high peak.

关 键 词：水文干旱 干旱特征变量 游程理论 COPULA函数 重现期 同现期 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]