赣北地区六十年来秋季降水特征与未来风险分析预估  

Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation in Northern Jiangxi in the Past 60 Years and Prediction of Future Risk Analysis

作　　者：段沙丽 Duan Shali(Jiujiang City Meteorological Bureau.,Jiujiang,Jiangxi 332000,China)

机构地区：[1]九江市气象局,江西九江332000

出　　处：《棉花科学》2021年第3期23-31,共9页Cotton Sciences

基　　金：江西省气象局重点科研项目(JXQX2017Z12);九江市气象局重点科研项目(JJQX2020Z05)。

摘　　要：为优化赣北地区粮、棉、油等产业布局,提升区域防灾减灾与应对气候变化能力,以赣北地区历年秋季降水量、不同量级降水量日数以及最长连续无降水日数为研究对象,分析研究其秋季降水变化的线性、周期性、突变性以及年代际变化特征,预估其变化趋势与风险。结果表明:1960年以来,赣北地区秋季降水(含降水量日数)年变化线性趋势特征均不显著,但周期性振荡特征明显,小雨日数与总阴雨日数出现阶段性减少的突变,最长连续无降水日数也出现过短时的减少突变;未来7~10 a秋季除暴雨及大暴雨日数可能进入偏多的周期外,其他因子均进入偏少的振荡周期,干旱与突发性强降水的风险并存。For local optimization of grain,cotton,rape and other industrial layout,improve the regional disaster prevention and mitigation and ability to cope with climate change,in the autumn precipitation and different scale precipitation days and the longest continuous rainy days as the research object,this paper analyzes autumn precipitation change of linear,periodic,mutability and decadal variation characteristics,forecast the change trend and risk.The results showed that since 1960,the annual linear trend characteristics of autumn precipitation(including precipitation days)in northern Jiangxi are not significant,but the periodic oscillation characteristics are obvious.The number of light rain days and total cloudy rain days have a sudden decrease in stages,and the longest consecutive non-precipitation days also have a short decrease mutation.In the next 7-10 years,except the rainstorm and heavy rainstorm days may enter a period of more,other factors will enter a period of less oscillation,and the risks of drought and sudden heavy precipitation coexist.

关 键 词：赣北地区 秋季 降水 特征 风险 预估 

分 类 号：S161.3[农业科学—农业气象学]