动态故障树技术及其在复杂核能系统概率安全评估中的应用展望  

Dynamic Fault Tree Technology and its Application Prospects in Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Complex Nuclear Energy Systems

作　　者：王韶轩 郭丁情[3,4] 李学礼 林志贤 戈道川 汪建业 Wang Shaoxuan;Guo Dingqing;Li Xueli;Lin Zhixian;Ge Daochuan;Wang Jianye(Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety,Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology,HIPS,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Hefei 230031,China;University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei 230026,China;School of Nuclear Science and Engineering,Shanghai Jiaotong University,Shanghai 200240,China;China General Nuclear Power Engineering Design Co.,Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院合肥物质科学研究院,中子输运理论与辐射安全重点实验室,合肥230031 [2]中国科学技术大学,合肥230026 [3]上海交通大学,核科学与工程学院,上海200240 [4]中广核工程设计有限公司,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《核安全》2021年第4期84-91,共8页Nuclear Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目,项目编号:71901203。

摘　　要：用动态故障树弥补传统故障树对系统时序失效行为建模能力的不足,改进和完善现有核电厂系统可靠性和概率风险评价方法,已成为核电厂概率安全研究的一种发展趋势。近30年来,动态故障树的建模理论和分析技术已日趋成熟,并初步形成了以蒙特卡洛(MC)数值模拟、马尔科夫链模型以及组合法三类主要分析方法。本文将从动态故障树的分析方法、在核能系统可靠性评价中的应用、未来的发展趋势三个方面进行阐述,着重分析动态故障树分析方法的特点,提出了核电厂时序失效行为与特性以及未来动态故障树在核能系统中的发展方向,为动态故障树方法在核能系统可靠性和概率风险分析中的应用提供理论依据和实践指导。Using dynamic fault trees(DFTs)to make up for the deficiency of traditional fault tree to model the time series failure behavior of the system,and to improve and perfect the reliability and probabilistic risk anal⁃ysis(PSA)method of the existing nuclear power plant system,has become a trend of the probabilistic safety research of nuclear power plants.During the past 30 years,the modeling theory and analyzing techniques of DFTs have become more and more mature,three main analysis methods are formed:Monte Carlo(MC)numeri⁃cal simulation,Markov chain model and combination method.This article explained DFTs analysis methods,their applications in the reliability evaluation of nuclear energy systems,and the future development trend.This paper focused on analyzing the characteristics of the DFTs analysis methods,and put forward the sequen⁃tial failure behaviors and characteristics of nuclear power plants,as well as the future development direction of DFTs in nuclear energy systems.This article was expected to provide theoretical basis and practical guidances for the application of DFTs methods in nuclear energy systems reliability and probabilistic risk analysis.

关 键 词：动态故障树 核能系统可靠性 蒙特卡洛数值模拟 马尔科夫链模型 组合法 

分 类 号：TL364[核科学技术—核技术及应用]