大椭圆轨道轨控期间碰撞预警规避阈值设置方法研究  

Researched Setting Method of Alarm Threshold During Control ofLarge Elliptic Orbit

作　　者：李翠兰 刘成军[3] 欧阳琦[3] 孔静 陈明[3] 刘静[1] LI Cuilan;LIU Chengjun;OUYANG Qi;KONG Jing;CHEN Ming;LIU Jing(National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Beijing Aerospace Control Center,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]北京航天飞行控制中心,北京100094

出　　处：《载人航天》2021年第4期480-488,共9页Manned Spaceflight

摘　　要：针对大椭圆轨道在轨控期间使用传统Box规避阈值计算碰撞风险漏警率较高的问题,首先对大椭圆轨道预报偏差和控制偏差进行了分析,发现轨道偏差和轨控偏差随时间的传播规律可通过多项式拟合的方法模拟;然后提出将各种偏差导致的轨道预报偏差叠加,动态计算Box规避阈值的方法;最后与传统Box规避阈值确定方法进行比较。结果表明:使用动态Box规避阈值设置方法可以有效降低传统Box规避阈值计算碰撞风险漏警和虚警率。During the control of the large elliptic orbit,the leakage alarm rate in computing collision risk using the threshold of traditional Box method is remarkably high.The orbital propagation errors caused by the initial orbital error and the control error were analyzed and it was found that the propagation regularities of the initial orbital error and the control error with the time could be simulated by the method of polynomial fitting.Based on the propagation regularities of the initial orbit error and the control error,the setting method of the dynamic Box Warning threshold was proposed which superimposed the orbital propagation errors caused by various deviations.The result showed that compared with the setting method of the traditional Box alarm threshold,the setting method of the dynamic Box alarm threshold could effectively reduce the leakage alarm rate and the false alarm rate.

关 键 词：大椭圆轨道 轨道偏差 动态Box规避阈值 碰撞风险 

分 类 号：V412.4[航空宇航科学与技术—航空宇航推进理论与工程]