经济政策不确定性与中间产品内向化——基于成本变动与供给质量的视角  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Internalization of Intermediate Products——Based on Cost Changes and Supply Quality Perspective

作　　者：李泽鑫 赵忠秀 董骥 LI Zexin;ZHAO Zhongxiu;DONG Ji(School of International Economics and Trade,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014;School of Statistics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,山东济南250014 [2]山东财经大学统计学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2021年第4期19-33,共15页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大研究专项“新冠肺炎疫情下全球价值链与中美全面‘脱钩’风险评估研究”(20VMG080)。

摘　　要：本文利用2000—2015年微观企业数据考察了进口来源国经济政策不确定性对中国企业国内中间产品投入的影响。研究发现,进口来源国经济政策不确定性推动了中国企业中间产品内向化发展。渠道分析表明,存货成本提高导致的成本变动和国外供给收缩引致的进口产品质量降低是经济政策不确定性推动企业供应链向中间产品内向化新形态演变的重要途径。异质性分析显示,经济政策不确定性对中间品供给结构的重构效应对沿海地区和加工贸易企业更为突出,具有显著的规模门槛。This article used the micro-enterprise data from 2000 to 2015 to study the impact of EPU of the import source country on the domestic intermediate product input. The result shows that the EPU of the import source country has promoted the degree of internalization of enterprises’ intermediate products. Channel analysis shows that the cost change effect caused by the increase of inventory costs and the reduction in product quality caused by the shrinking foreign supply are important ways for EPU to promote the evolution of enterprise supply chain to the new form of ’intermediate products internalization’.The heterogeneity test shows that the restructuring effect of EPU on the supply structure of intermediate goods is more prominent in coastal areas and processing trade enterprises, and has a significant scale threshold.

关 键 词：中间产品贸易 经济政策不确定性 进口贸易 贸易偏转效应 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易]