潘家口水库上游面雨量气候特征及入库水量预测模型探究  

Study on the Climatic Characteristics of Areal Rainfall and the Inflow Forecast Mod⁃el of the Upper Reaches of Panjiakou Reservoir

作　　者：王朋朋 薛思嘉 易永力 瞿卫东 张海英 WANG Peng-peng;XUE Si-jia;YI Yong-li;ZHAI Wei-dong;ZHANG Hai-ying(Chengde Meteorological Bureau,Chengde 067000,China;Hydrology and Water Quality Monitoring Center of Luan River Diversion Project Management Bureau,Qianxi 063009,China)

机构地区：[1]承德市气象局,河北承德067000 [2]引滦工程管理局水文水质监测中心,河北迁西063009

出　　处：《海河水利》2021年第4期39-44,共6页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：本研究利用潘家口水库上游6个国家基本气象站1965—2019年的气象数据以及潘家口水库1980—2019年的入库水量数据,采用统计方法、M-K检验、皮尔逊-Ⅲ型分布模型等方法,分析了潘家口水库上游流域气候变化特征;利用逐步回归及多元线性回归模型,建立了入库水量与上游降水量之间的关系方程。结果表明:雨日强度、年均气温呈现逐年上升的趋势,且分别通过了95%、99%的检验。6—9月,月均面雨量都在50 mm以上且远高于其他月份,为流域的多雨季,多雨季降水量占常年平均降水量的78%。除1—2、7—8月有逐年减少的趋势外,其他月份均有逐年增加的趋势。小雨和中雨量级降水多出现在6—8月,大雨及以上量级降水多出现在7—8月,7月发生强降水过程的次数最多,8月次之,但强度更强。将上游国家基本气象站降水量和同期入库水量相结合,采用逐步回归方法建立潘家口水库入库水量预测模型,并对模型进行检验,结果表明在一定范围内模型效果较好,具有一定的实用性。Based on the meteorological data of six national stations in the upper reaches of Panjiakou Reservoir from 1965 to 2019 and the water inflow data of Panjiakou reservoir from 1980 to 2019,this study applies statistical method,M-K test,Pearson-Ⅲdistribution model and other methods to analyze the characteristics of climate change in the upper reaches of Panjiakou reservoir.By using stepwise regression and multiple linear regression models,the relationship equation between the inflow of water and the precipitation in the upper reaches is established.The result shows that the intensity of rain days and the average annual temperature present an increasing trend year by year and both of them pass 95%and 99%tests re⁃spectively.From June to September,the average monthly area rainfall is more than 50 mm which is much higher than other months and is the multi-rainy season in the basin.The rainfall of multiple rainy seasons accounts for 78%of the annual av⁃erage rainfall.The rainfall of months except January,February,July and August shows an increasing trend year by year.Light rain and moderate rain mainly occur in June to August,while heavy rain and above mainly occur in July to August.The frequency of heavy precipitation process is the highest in July,followed by August the intensity of which is stronger.Based on the precipitation data of the upstream national stations and the inflow of the reservoir in the same period,a predic⁃tion model of the inflow of Panjiakou reservoir is established by using the stepwise regression method the test result of which shows that the model is effective in a certain range and has certain practicability.

关 键 词：潘家口水库 面雨量 气候特征 水量预测模型 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]