基于Monte-Carlo方法的海堤结构可靠度分析  

Reliability analysis of seawall structure based on Monte-Carlo method

作　　者：李瀛 鲁官平 雷雪婷 LI Ying;LU Guan-ping;LEI Xue-ting(Changjiang Waterway Planning Design and Research Institute,Wuhan 430040,China;Shanghai Waterway Engineering Design and Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]长江航道规划设计研究院,湖北武汉430040 [2]中交上海航道勘察设计研究院有限公司,上海200120

出　　处：《水运工程》2021年第8期67-73,181,共8页Port & Waterway Engineering

摘　　要：为解决海堤结构安全的随机不确定性问题,基于Monte-Carlo方法的结构可靠度分析理论,重点分析波浪、潮位和风等影响因素对海堤结构的作用,并针对我国海堤结构的特点,建立多种失效模式下海堤结构安全分析的功能函数和分析方法。通过建立的多种失效模式对典型海堤结构进行可靠性分析,得到海堤结构多种破坏形式下的失效概率,进而对主要影响因素的敏感性与失效概率的关系进行分析。结果表明,该方法可应用于已建海堤工程安全评估,对新建或拟建海堤进行安全设计。To solve the problem of stochastic uncertainty problem of seawall structure safety, we analyze the influence factors such as wave, tide, and wind on the role of the seawall structure based on the Monte-Carlo method of structural reliability analysis theory, and establish the safety of the seawall structure under multiple failure modes analysis of functions and the analysis method according to the characteristics of the seawall structure in our country. Based on the reliability analysis of a typical seawall structure with the established multiple failure modes, we obtain the failure probability of seawall structure under various failure modes and analyze the relationship between the sensitivity of main influencing factors and failure probability. The results show that the method can be applied to the safety assessment of the existing seawall and the safety design of the newly built or planned seawall.

关 键 词：MONTE-CARLO方法 海堤结构 可靠度分析 

分 类 号：U656.2[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]