中国人口发展的特征与趋势——基于历次人口普查公报的分析  

Characteristics and Trends of China's Population Development:An Analysis of the Bulletins of 7th National Census and the Previous

作　　者：梁宏[1] LIANG Hong(School of Sociology and Anthropology,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou Guangdong,510275)

机构地区：[1]中山大学社会学与人类学学院国家治理研究院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《南方人口》2021年第4期47-58,共12页South China Population

摘　　要：人口状况是一个国家最基本的国情,人口普查是对我国人口情况的一次清查。本文利用我国1953-2020年共七次全国及部分省份人口普查公报资料,描述、分析我国人口发展的主要特征、趋势。自1953年第一次人口普查以来,我国人口规模持续增长,目前人口总量仍居世界第一;男女性别比稍高但结构不断改善,少数民族人口增速快于汉族人口,城市化水平持续快速提高;家庭户数量增长迅速,家庭户均人数缩减明显;人口老龄化程度不断加深,抚养比不断提高;人口受教育程度不断提高,文盲率急剧下降,但地区差异仍然较大;人户分离规模不断扩大,人口流动趋势不断加强。同时,人口在省际间的分布及集中程度有所变化,东部地区的人口占比持续稳步上升,中部地区人口比重有所下降,西部地区人口比重有所波动,东北地区的人口占比持续明显下降,三大城市群的人口集中趋势越来越明显。由此,本文从人口发展战略、人口政策、公共资源供给及配置等方面提出几点思考。Population is the most basic national condition,and the census is an scientifically inventory of China's population situation.This paper describes and analyzes the main characteristics and trends of China's population development by using the data from the bulletins of the seven censuses from 1953 to 2020.Since the first census in 1953,China's population scale has continued to grow,and the total population still ranks first in the world so far.The growth rate of minority population is faster than that of Han population,and the level of urbanization continues to increase rapidly.The number of households increased rapidly,and the average number of households decreased significantly.The degree of population aging is deepening and the dependency ratio is increasing.The education level of the population has been increasing,and the illiteracy rate has dropped sharply,but the regional differences of the education level are still large.The scale of separation between people and households is expanding,and the trend of population flow is strengthening.Besides the distribution and concentration of population among provinces keep changing among the regions,i.e.the proportion of the eastern keep rising,while that of central decreasing an that of the western fluctuating.On contrast to the continuous significant decline of population in the northeast,population concentration in the three major urban agglomerations become a increasing trend.Accordingly some thoughts and suggestions are put forward concerning population development strategy,population policy,public resource supply and allocation in the paper.

关 键 词：人口普查 人口发展 特征 趋势 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]