基于聚类分析的中国工业部门碳边际减排成本变化分析  

On the Change of Marginal Carbon Emission Reduction Costs of Industrial Sectors in China Based on Clustering Analysis

作　　者：朱梅钰 龙飞[1] 祁慧博[1] ZHU Meiyu;LONG Fei;QI Huibo(College of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,浙江杭州311300

出　　处：《山东科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第4期81-89,共9页Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71473230);浙江省自然科学基金青年项目(Q17G030042)。

摘　　要：收集整理了2008-2017年间中国29个省、市及地区工业部门的投入产出数据,利用方向距离函数对各地区工业部门的碳边际减排成本进行测度,并借助聚类分析对测度结果进行分区。结果表明:10年间样本地区碳边际减排成本存在明显地区性波动。聚类分析将其分为3个区,分区1、2、3的碳边际减排成本的平均值分别为:1.59万元/吨、1.18万元/吨、0.51万元/吨。另外,2012、2013年的碳边际减排成本数据对分区的影响最显著。减排成本直接影响工业部门的后续经济选择,该结果对未来因地制宜地设计减排政策提供客观依据和理论支撑。Based on the input-output data of 29 provinces,cities and regions in China from 2008 to 2017,the marginal carbon emission reduction costs of industrial sectors in each region are measured by using the directional distance function,and the measurement results are divided into different divisions by clustering analysis.The results show that there are obvious regional fluctuations in the marginal carbon emission reduction costs in the sample areas in the past 10 years.The average value of marginal carbon emission reduction costs in Division 1,2 and 3 are 15900 yuan/ton,11800 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively.In addition,the marginal carbon emission reduction costs data in 2012 and 2013 have the most significant impact on the division.The emission reduction costs directly affect the subsequent economic choice of the industrial sectors,therefore,the results provide objective basis and theoretical support for the design of emission reduction policies in accordance with local conditions in the future.

关 键 词：方向性距离函数 碳边际减排成本 聚类分析 判别分析 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]