新冠疫情的空间分布及影响因素——基于中国病例数据的动态分析  

Spatial Distribution and Influencing Factors of COVID-19——Dynamic Analysis Based on Chinese Case Data

作　　者：金亚亚 毛晓蒙 王霞 宋頔 刘明 JIN Ya-ya;MAO Xiao-meng;WANG Xia;SONG Di;LIU Ming(School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730030,Gansu;Gansu Economics&Development Quantitative Analysis Institute,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,Gansu)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计学院,甘肃兰州730030 [2]兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《陇东学院学报》2021年第5期16-23,共8页Journal of Longdong University

摘　　要：基于中国31个省(市、区)经济、人口等数据和卫健委官方网站公布的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情数据,运用空间数据探索性分析、空间回归模型等空间统计分析方法对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情状况展开时空分析研究。研究发现,中国各省新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊人数存在较强的空间相关性,确诊病例人数高、低分布具有明显的空间聚集性,高确诊人数的地区主要集中在湖北省及其周边区域,并且这种聚集特征较稳定;空间回归模型实证结果表明影响新冠疫情传播的三大宏观层面即地理位置因素、经济发展因素和人口数量因素在省际之间存在显著的空间相关,交通可达性、地区经济发展程度和人口密度均可加速新冠病毒的传播,地区医院数量则对新冠病毒的传播具有明显的抑制作用。Based on the economic and population data of 31 provinces(cities and districts)in China and the COVID-19 data published on the official website of the Health Commission,using spatial statistical analysis methods such as exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression model to make spatiotemporal analysis of epidemic status of COVID-19.The study found:there is a strong spatial correlation about the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China.The high and low distribution of the number of confirmed cases have obvious spatial aggregation.The areas with high number of confirmed cases are mainly concentrated in Hubei Province and its surrounding areas,with relatively stable aggregation feature.The empirical results of spatial regression model show that three macro-levels factors associated with the spread of the epidemic,which can be listed as geographic location factors,population factors and economic development factors,have significant spatial correlation among different provinces,traffic accessibility,degree of regional economic development and population density all can accelerate the spread of COVID-19,while the number of regional hospitals has a significantly inhibitory effect on the spread of COVID-19.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 时空分析 空间模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]