中国天然气工业发展回顾与前景展望  

Development of natural gas industry in China:Review and prospect

作　　者：李鹭光[1] LI Luguang(PetroChina Company Limited,Beijing 100007,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司,北京100007

出　　处：《天然气工业》2021年第8期1-11,共11页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：为了更好地推进中国天然气业务的持续有效快速发展和“双碳”目标的按期实现,总结回顾了中国天然气工业发展所取得的一系列成果和经验,分析了能源环境政策对天然气产业发展的影响,剖析了国内天然气勘探开发形势,展望了我国天然气勘探开发前景,并提出了相关发展建议。研究结果表明:在巴黎气候协定承诺和碳达峰、碳中和的战略环境下,中国天然气产业面临的发展机遇前所未有;国内天然气资源基础丰厚、资源探明率低、增储上产目标领域明确,与此同时,由于资源复杂化、勘探开发成本升高,天然气规模效益上产难度亦增加;尽管如此,为了保障国家能源安全,实现经济发展与环境保护双重目标,国家坚持大力提升国内油气勘探开发力度,按照当前天然气新增探明储量的增长态势,预计到2040年全国将新增天然气探明地质储量16×10^(12)~20×10^(12) m^(3),2030年左右天然气年产量达到峰值目标2900×10^(8)~3300×10^(8)m^(3),届时国内天然气可采资源探明率在14%左右,发展目标具备可持续性。为了实现上述发展目标,提出以下5点建议:①保持天然气勘探开发持续稳定投入,确保勘探持续获得新突破和新发现、开发能够在弥补产量递减的同时保持产量箭头向上;②强化科技攻关,依靠技术和管理创新突破勘探禁区、提高气田开发效益;③加强对已开发气田的综合治理,提高气田最终采收率;④统筹优化国内外气源、常规与非常规天然气构成,提高应对供气风险的能力;⑤对非常规天然气持续给予税收优惠和补贴政策支持,加快非常规天然气规模效益上产。In order to better promote the sustainable,effective and rapid development of natural gas business and the on-schedule realization of"carbon peak and carbon neutrality"goal,this paper summarizes and reviews the achievements and experience in the development of natural gas industry in China.Then,the influence of energy environmental policies on the development of natural gas industry is analyzed,and domestic natural gas exploration and development situations are dissected.Finally,domestic natural gas exploration and development prospect is forecasted,and the corresponding development suggestions are proposed.And the following research results are obtained.First,under the commitment of the Paris Climate Agreement and the strategy of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,China's natural gas industry faces unprecedented development opportunities.Second,domestic natural gas is characterized by abundant resource bases,low proven rate of resource and clear target and field of reserve and production increase,but the complexity of the resources and the rise of exploration and development cost make it more difficult to realize the large-scale efficient increase of natural gas production.Third,nevertheless,in order to ensure national energy security and reach the dual goals of economic development and environmental protection,China continues to powerfully enhance domestic oil and gas exploration and development.According to the growth trend of new proved natural gas reserves,it is predicted that the domestic new proved natural gas reserves by 2040 will be 16×10^(12)–20×10^(12) m^(3),the peak natural gas production of 2900×10^(8)–3300×10^(8) m^(3) will be reached in 2030,and the proven rate of recoverable natural gas resources will be around 14%,which indicates the sustainability of the development goal.In order to realize these development goals,five suggestions are put forward:(1)Maintain continuous and stable investment in exploration and development,so that new breakthroughs and discoveries can be achieved continuous

关 键 词：中国 天然气工业 发展历程 能源环境政策 勘探开发前景 新增天然气探明储量 产量 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济]