“碳中和”的内涵、创新与愿景  

Connotation,innovation and vision of"carbon neutral"

作　　者：邹才能[1] 薛华庆[1] 熊波[1] 张国生[1] 潘松圻[1] 贾成业[1] 王影[1] 马锋[1] 孙倩 关春晓[1] 林敏捷 ZOU Caineng;XUE Huaqing;XIONG Bo;ZHANG Guosheng;PAN Songqi;JIA Chengye;WANG Ying;MA Feng;SUN Qian;Guan Chunxiao;LIN Minjie(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China;Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]西南石油大学

出　　处：《天然气工业》2021年第8期46-57,共12页Natural Gas Industry

摘　　要：地质作用引起的全球性气候变化是地质历史时期5次全球性生物大灭绝的主要诱因之一。人类工业化活动导致生态系统遭到严重破坏,大气CO_(2)温室效应加剧,生存环境面临威胁与挑战。碳中和目标是人类面对气候变化危机的主动作为和共同追求,探究“碳中和学”的理论与技术内涵、科技创新体系和发展前景,具有深远的意义。研究结论认为:①碳中和体现“能源学”与“碳中和学”的理论内涵,包含碳减排、零碳、负碳、碳交易等;②碳中和催生以CCUS(碳捕集、利用和封存)/CCS(碳捕集与封存)为核心的碳工业和以绿氢为核心的氢工业等新产业;“灰碳”和“黑碳”是CO2的两种应用属性,“碳+”“碳-”“碳=”是碳中和的3种产品与技术;③中国实现碳中和目标面临三大挑战:一是能源转型规模大,碳中和实现周期较短;二是能源转型过程中存在着安全不确定性、利用经济性、颠覆性技术难预测性等问题;三是转型后可能面临新的关键技术“卡脖子”和关键矿产资源“断链子”等风险;④基于目前的认知预判能源领域的十大颠覆性技术与产业包括煤炭地下气化、中低熟页岩油原位开采、CCUS/CCS、氢能与燃料电池、生物光伏发电、天基太阳能发电、光储智能微网、超级储能、可控核聚变、智慧能源互联网,同时碳中和需要实施节能提效、减碳固碳、科技创新、应急储备、政策支撑五大战略协同工程;⑤未来我国不同能源类型定位各有侧重,煤炭将发挥保障国家能源战略“储备”与“兜底”作用,石油将发挥保障国家能源安全“急需”与民生原料用品“基石”作用,天然气将发挥保障国家能源“安全”与新能源最佳“伙伴”作用,新能源将发挥保障国家能源战略“接替”与“主力”作用;⑥碳中和是绿色化工业革命、减碳化能源革命、生态化科技革命的重大实践,�Global climate change caused by geological processes is one of the main causes of the 5 global mass extinctions in geological history.Human industrialization activities have caused serious damage to the ecosystem,the greenhouse effect of atmospheric CO_(2) has intensified,and the living environment is facing threats and challenges.Carbon neutral is the active action and common goal of mankind in the face of the climate change crisis,including theoretical and technological connotation,scientific and technological innovation system,and has far-reaching significance and broad prospects.Studies indicate that(1)Carbon neutral embodies the theoretical connotations of"energy science"and"carbon neutral science",including technical connotations of carbon emission reduction,zero carbon,negative carbon,and carbon trading.(2)Carbon neutral spawns a carbon industry centered on CO2 capture,utilization,and storage(CCUS,or CO2 capture and storage CCS),and a hydrogen industry centered on green hydrogen."Gray carbon"and"black carbon"are the two application attributes of CO2."Carbon+","Carbon-",and"Carbon="are three carbon-neutral products and technologies.(3)China faces three major challenges in achieving the goal of carbon neutral:first,the energy transition is large in scale and the cycle is short;Second,there are many problems in the process of energy transition,such as security uncertainties,economic utilization,and unpredictable disruptive technologies;Third,after the transition,we may face new key technological"bottlenecks"and"broken chain"of key mineral resources.(4)Based on current knowledge to predict the top 10 disruptive technologies and industries in the energy field:underground coal gasification,in-situ conversion process of medium and low-mature shale oil,CCUS/CCS,hydrogen energy and fuel cells,bio-photovoltaic power generation,space-based solar power generation,optical storage smart micro-grid,super energy storage,controllable nuclear fusion,wisdom energy Internet.Five strategic projects will be implemented,includin

关 键 词：碳中和 碳达峰 碳减排 碳工业 氢工业 能源转型 能源独立 能源学 碳中和学 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]