基于Copula函数的并联水库群洪水地区组成方法  

Research on Flood Region Composition Method of Parallel Reservoirs Based on Copula Function

作　　者：林乐曼 周倩倩 LIN Le-man;ZHOU Qian-qian(Wenzhou Water Conservancy Development,Research Center,Wenzhou 325009,China;Wenzhou Water Conservancy Bureau,Wenzhou 325009,China)

机构地区：[1]温州市水利规划发展研究中心,浙江温州325009 [2]温州市水利局,浙江温州325009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2021年第8期89-93,共5页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：目前,我国规范推荐的洪水地区组成方法存在主观性、经验性较强问题或概化问题,特别是对于洪水地区相关关系较弱的并联水库群,计算结果与理论的洪水地区组成可能存在较大差异。利用Copula函数建立的并联水库群洪量地区组成多元联合分布,构建最可能地区组成模型,应用遗传算法求解最可能地区组成方案,并以某并联水库设计洪水为例,将该方法的计算结果与同频率法进行比较,验证方法的有效性。结果表明,遗传算法在求解最可能地区组成方案时可发挥较好的作用;两种方法所得结果整体上在各区域分配规律相一致,但存在差异,且随着频率变大,差异逐渐减小,而基于Copula函数的方法理论依据充分,统计基础强,在描述并联水库群的洪水天然组成规律方面效果较好,可有效地规避同频率法的盲目性和任意性。At present,the flood region composition method recommended by China standard has subjective,empirical and generalization problems,especially for parallel reservoirs with weaker flood correlations between different areas,whose results may be far away from the truth.This paper used the Copula function to establish the multivariate joint distribution of the flood volume of parallel reservoirs,and construct the most likely composition model.The genetic algorithm was used to solve the model.In order to verify the effectiveness of this method,a certain parallel reservoirs were taken as an example,and the calculation results were compared with the same frequency method.The results show that the genetic algorithm can work well in solving the most likely composition plan;The results of two methods are consistent in the flood distribution of each region in general,but there also exist the differences;As the flood frequency increases,the differences gradually decrease.The method based on Copula function has sufficient theoretical basis and strong statistical foundation.It is effective that the method is in describing the natural flood region composition of parallel reservoirs.Besides the method can effectively avoid the blindness and arbitrariness compared with the same frequency method.

关 键 词：并联水库群洪水地区组成 COPULA函数 多元联合分布 最可能地区组成 遗传算法 

分 类 号：TV122.3[水利工程—水文学及水资源]