基于体系工程的重大科技项目决策博弈分析  

Game Theory Analysis of Decision Behavior on the National Major Science and Technology Projects Based on System of Systems Engineering

作　　者：武志锋 刘伊生[1] WU Zhi-feng;LIU Yi-sheng(Beijing Jiao tong University,Beijing 100876,China;China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology,Beijing 100041,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学,北京100876 [2]中国电子科学研究院,北京100041

出　　处：《中国电子科学研究院学报》2021年第7期684-691,共8页Journal of China Academy of Electronics and Information Technology

摘　　要：不同于一般的大型工程,重大科技项目具有投资规模大、技术风险高、建设周期长、涉及单位多、波及面广等特点,其研制建设是一项复杂的体系工程,需要突破传统系统思维和系统工程方法的束缚,创新运用体系工程方法去开展重大科技项目决策分析工作,指导重大科技项目决策管理实践。文中在分析重大科技项目体系工程过程与决策分析过程基础上,针对重大科技项目决策分析特征,构建了重大科技项目决策网络架构,探讨了重大科技项目决策模式,建立了一种基于Stackelberg主从动态博弈理论的分层决策博弈框架,为重大科技项目决策管理提供理论依据与方法指导。Different from the general large-scale projects,the national major science and technology projects have the characteristics of high technical risk,large investment scale,long construction period,many involved units and wide range. Its development and construction is a complex system of systems engineering,which needs to break through the shackles of traditional system thinking and system engineering methods,and innovatively use system of systems engineering methods to carry out decision-making and analysis of the national major science and technology projects,To guide the practice of decision-making management of the national major science and technology projects. Based on the analysis of the system of systems engineering process and decision analysis process of the national major science and technology projects,this paper constructs the decision-making network architecture of the national major science and technology projects,discusses the decision-making pattern of the national major science and technology projects,and establishes a hierarchical decision-making game framework based on the Stackelberg master-slave dynamic game theory,which provides theoretical basis and method guidance for decision-making management of the national major science and technology projects.

关 键 词：体系工程 决策网络 决策模式 Stackelberg主从博弈模型 

分 类 号：E11[军事—军事理论]