基于信息扩散理论的贵州省高温分布特征及风险分析  

High Temperature Distribution Characteristics and Risk Analysis in Guizhou Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory

作　　者：段莹 龙俐[2] 胡欣欣 DUAN Ying;LONG Li;HU Xinxin(Guizhou Ecometeorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Institute of Mountainous Environment and Climate,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省生态气象和卫星遥感中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳550002 [3]贵州省山地环境气候研究所,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2021年第4期23-29,共7页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：贵州省气象局青年科技基金(黔气科合QN[2015]22号):贵州省高温灾害区域评估标准研究。

摘　　要：该文将贵州省高温易发区分为北部、东北部、东南部、南部4个区域,选取其中主要的38个国家级气象观测站1961—2019年逐日最高气温,描述高温分布特征,并基于信息扩散理论对灾害危险性风险进行分析。结果表明:①研究区域的高温主要出现在4—9月;平均日最高气温总体呈上升趋势,年际变化先降后升;平均年高温日数为10.7 d,主要集中在7、8月,年际变化呈现波动式,但整体呈上升趋势;极端高温大部分地区在38.0~42.0℃之间,大部分地区极端高温呈维持—升高态势。②赤水、沿河、榕江、罗甸4个代表站的高温度数风险概率曲线均为单弧线型,区域风险面积随等级的增加逐渐减小;4个代表站的最长连续高温日数风险概率曲线为多峰型,大部分地区连续高温日数出现5 d以下的概率较大,16 d以上高风险值的几率很小。③4个高温易发区中,北区除赤水外,高温风险整体最低,且连续高温日数短;东北区高温风险在4个区域中风险最高,连续高温风险随连续日数的增大而增大;东南区高温风险呈南高北低态势;南区除罗甸高温风险较高外,其他站点整体为中低风险。High temperature prone area in Guizhou in this paper are divided into four regions:north,northeast,southeast,south area.We described the characteristics of high temperature distribution,and analyzed hazard risk based on the information diffusion theory,using the daily maximum temperature of the main 38 national meteorological observatories during 1961—2019.The results show that:①the high temperature mainly appear in the April to September of study area;general average daily highest temperature is on the rise,the interannual change fell first and then rose;average annual high temperature days is 10.7 days,mainly concentrated in July and August,rendering interannual fluctuation,but the overall is on the rise;the extreme high-temperature range from 38 to 42℃in the most of study area,and show a maintain-rising trend.②High temperature degree of risk probability curve are single arc type in the four representative stations of Chishui,Yanhe,Rongjiang and Luodian,the risk area decreases as the grade increases gradually;the longest continuous high temperature days risk probability curve of the four representative stations are multi-peak type,probability of continuous high temperature days in five consecutive days is larger in most part,probability of high risk value more than 16 days is very small.③In the four high temperature prone area,high temperature risk is the lowest in north district in addition to the Chishui,and the continuous high temperature days is short;the high temperature risk in northeast district of the four prone area is the highest,continuous high temperature risk increases with the increasing of consecutive days;high temperature risk of southeast district is high in south,and low in north;in south district,high temperature risk of Luodian is high,and other sites are medium to low as a whole.

关 键 词：高温 高温日数 信息扩散理论 风险 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]