导弹精度评估方法仿真分析  

Simulation Analysis of Assessment Method for Missile Accuracy

作　　者：李述清[1] 张志利 魏玉淼 王海涛[1] Li Shuqing;Zhang Zhili;Wei Yumiao;Wang Haitao(Unit 96744 of the Chinese PLA,Hanzhong 723000,China;Rocket Force University of Engineering,Xi'an 710025,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军96744部队,陕西汉中723000 [2]火箭军工程大学,陕西西安710025

出　　处：《系统仿真学报》2021年第8期1825-1831,共7页Journal of System Simulation

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划青年人才项目(S2019-JC-QN-2408)。

摘　　要：落点精度是导弹武器的一项重要战术技术指标,精度评估方法也显得尤为重要。提出一种适用于导弹精度评估的改进算法。将精度评估问题简化为关于概率圆分布的假设检验问题,对精度的准确度和密集度分别定义差异系数。基于概率圆方法,考虑研制方风险和使用方风险相等,并使该风险最小,提出改进的精度综合评估方法。引入序贯检验的思路,将上述基本方法进行扩展,以适用于序贯检验情形。结合数值仿真和定性分析,验证并分析了所提方法的有效性和实用性。The missile accuracy of the falling points is one of the important performance indexes of missile systems,so the assessment method is very important.An improved algorithm for missile accuracy assessment is proposed.Accuracy assessment problem is simplified as a hypothesis check for probability circle,and the accuracy difference coefficients are defined to describe the accuracy difference between the real falling points and the expected situation.Based on the probability circle method,an improved risk assessment method is put forward to balance and minimize producer’s risk and consumer’s risk.According to sequential check method,this risk assessment method is extended,and applied to sequential check situation.The simulation result shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：概率圆 评估方法 风险 序贯检验 仿真 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计] TP391[理学—数学]