Seasonal and geographical distribution of bacillary dysentery(shigellosis)and associated climate risk factors in Kon Tum Province in Vietnam from 1999 to 2013  

作　　者：Hu Suk Lee TTHa Hoang Phuc Pham-Duc Mihye Lee Delia Grace Dac Cam Phung Vu Minh Thuc Hung Nguyen-Viet 

机构地区：[1]International Livestock Research Institute(ILRI),Room 301-302,B1 Building,Van Phuc Diplomatic Compound,298 Kim Ma Street,Ba Dinh District,Hanoi,Vietnam [2]Department of Bacteriology,National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology,Hanoi,Vietnam [3]Center for Public Health and Ecosystem Research,Hanoi University of Public Health,Hanoi,Vietnam [4]Medical Microbiology Department,The Royal Bournemouth Hospital,Bournemouth,UK [5]ILRI,Nairobi,Kenya [6]Thanh Do University,Hanoi,Vietnam

出　　处：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》2017年第1期1012-1022,共11页贫困所致传染病（英文）

基　　金：This study was supported by a grant from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security(CCAFS)given to the Pestforecast project“Surveillance and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases in Vietnam”,which was implemented by the International Livestock Research Institute(ILRI)Vietnam office;Financial support was also received from the CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health,led by the International Food Policy Research Institute.

摘　　要：Background:Bacillary dysentery(BD)is an acute bacterial infection of the intestine caused by Shigella spp.,with clinical symptoms ranging from fever to bloody diarrhoea to abdominal cramps to tenesmus.In Vietnam,enteric bacterial pathogens are an important cause of diarrhoea and most cases in children under 5 years of age are due to Shigella strains.The serogroups S.flexneri and S.sonnei are considered to be the most common.The main objective of this study was to,for the first time,assess the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam,and to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province,where the highest rate of bacillary dysentery was observed from 1999 to 2013.Methods:The seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD was assessed in Vietnam using a seasonaltrend decomposition procedure based on loess.In addition,negative binomial regression models were used to determine the climate risk factors associated with the incidence of BD in Kon Tum Province,from 1999 to 2013.Results:Overall,incidence rates of BD have slightly decreased over time(except for an extremely high incidence in 2012 in the north of Vietnam).The central regions(north/south central coast and central highlands)had relatively high incidence rates,whereas the northwest/east and Red River Delta regions had low incidence rates.Overall,seasonal plots showed a high peak in the mid-rainy reason and a second smaller peak in the early or late rainy season.The incidence rates significantly increased between May and October(“wet season”)across the country.In Kon Tum Province,temperature,humidity,and precipitation were found to be positively associated with the incidence of BD.Conclusions:Our findings provide insights into the seasonal patterns and geographic distribution of BD in Vietnam and its associated climate risk factors in Kon Tum Province.This study may help clinicians and the general public to better understand the timings of outbreaks and therefore equip them with the knowl

关 键 词：SHIGELLA Bacillary dysentery Incidence rate SEASONALITY Wet season Eco-regions Central regions VIETNAM 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]