基于MaxEnt模型的菜豆象全球潜在适生区预测  

Potential suitable distribution of Acanthoscelides obtectus(Say)based on the MaxEnt model

作　　者：徐养诚 刘孝贤 王婷[2] 李东育 高桂珍[4] XU Yangcheng;LIU Xiaoxian;WANG Ting;LI Dongyu;GAO Guizhen(SGS-CSTC Standards Technical Services(Qingdao)Co.Ltd,Qingdao,Shandong 266101,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830011,China;College of Biology and Geography Science,Yili Normal University,Yili,Xinjiang 835000,China;College of Forestry and Horticulture,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]通标标准技术服务(青岛)有限公司,山东青岛266101 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]伊犁师范大学生物与地理科学学院,新疆伊犁835000 [4]新疆农业大学林学与园艺学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《生物安全学报》2021年第3期213-219,共7页Journal of biosafety

基　　金：乌鲁木齐市科技局项目(P16121002);国家重点研发计划(2016YFE0120500)。

摘　　要：【目的】菜豆象是重要的检疫性害虫,预测其在全球范围内的潜在适生区可为农业部门开展菜豆象防控工作和检验检疫部门制定检疫策略提供科学依据。【方法】在收集菜豆象已有分布点和全球气象数据的基础上,采用MaxEnt模型对其在全球范围内的潜在适生区进行预测分析。【结果】MaxEnt模型的AUC平均值为0.926,预测结果准确可靠。菜豆象适生区主要分布在欧洲中西部的德国、法国、英国、荷兰、比利时、意大利、波兰、乌克兰、白俄罗斯和罗马尼亚等国家,非洲大陆和马达加斯加岛的中东部地区,北美洲的墨西哥高原和美国中东部地区,南美洲南部地区,大洋洲澳大利亚东部和南部沿海地区、新西兰,亚洲中国的云贵高原、四川盆地、华中和华南地区和台湾岛,缅甸东部地区、泰国和老挝北部地区、尼泊尔和日本大部分地区。高度适生区、中度适生区和低度适生区面积分别占陆地面积的4.95%、6.73%和13.70%。【结论】菜豆象的适生区面积占陆地面积的25.38%,持续扩散和危害的风险大。我国西南、华南地区等地区面临的形势更为严峻。影响菜豆象分布的主要生物气候因素有最冷月份最低温度、年平均温度、年气温变化范围、年降雨量、最干月份降雨量、最热月份最高温度、最暖季度平均温度、温度季节变化方差、昼夜温差月均值等。【Aim】Bean weevil,Acanthoscelides obtectus Say,is an important quarantine pest.To provide scientific advice to agricultural management and quarantine departments,this study predicted a potentially suitable range for A.obtectus on a global scale.【Method】We collected A.obtectus distributed site information and used the MaxEnt model to predict potential suitable areas.【Result】The average AUC value was 0.926,indicating that the MaxEnt model worked well in this analysis.The areas suitable for A.obtectus include Germany,France,Britain,Holland,Belgium,Italy,Poland,Ukraine,Belarus and Romaniain in Europe;central and eastern Africa and Madagascar island;the Mexico plateau and eastern United States in North America;southern regions of South America;eastern and southern areas of Australia and New Zealand in Oceania;the Yunnan Guizhou plateau,Sichuan basin,Central China,south China and Taiwan island in the south of China,eastern Myanmar,northern Thailand,Laos,Nepal,and much of Japan in Asia.The area ratios of highly suitable,moderately suitable,and minimally suitable are 4.95%,6.73%,and 13.70%,respectively.【Conclusion】The areas suitable for A.obtectus account for 25.38%of all land area,with a high risk of continuing spreading and invading,especially in the south and southwest of China.The maximum temperature of the coldest month,annual mean temperature,range of annual temperature,annual mean precipitation,precipitation of the driest month,maximum temperature of the warmest month,mean temperature of the warmest quarter,standard deviation of temperature seasonal change,and monthly mean diurnal temperature were the key bioclimate factors for A.obtectus distribution.

关 键 词：菜豆象 MAXENT 潜在适生区 生物气候因素 

分 类 号：S433.5[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]