Estimation of Critical Rainfall for Flood Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau  

青藏高原洪涝灾害的临界雨量估算

作　　者：MA Weidong LIU Fenggui ZHOU Qiang CHEN Qiong ZHANG Cungui LIU Fei LI Yanyan ZHAO Pei 马伟东;刘峰贵;周强;陈琼;张存桂;刘飞;李燕燕;赵佩(青海师范大学地理科学学院,西宁810008;高原科学与可持续发展研究院,西宁810008;东莞广量控股集团有限公司,广东东莞523080)

机构地区：[1]School of Geographic Science,Qinghai Normal University,Xining 810008,China [2]Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability,Xining 810008,China [3]Dongguan Guangliang Holding Group Co.,Ltd,Dongguan,Guangdong 523080,China

出　　处：《Journal of Resources and Ecology》2021年第5期600-608,共9页资源与生态学报（英文版）

基　　金：The Key Research and Development Projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2019YFA0606900);The Second Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0906)。

摘　　要：According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water,such as glaciers and perpetual snow,is transformed into liquid water,which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau.Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau,and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation,and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise.The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area;the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley.Finally,we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau,followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau,and the lowest values are in the central,western and northern parts of the Plateau.中国第二次青藏高原综合科学考察的成果指出,青藏高原水体的固液结构正在失衡,越来越多的冰川、积雪等固态水向液态水转化,这使得青藏高原洪涝灾害的风险加剧。本文以青藏高原地区历史洪涝灾害记录资料为依据,分析青藏高原地区洪涝灾害的时空分布特征,并结合区域内气象站点的降水数据,采用临界雨量法估算青藏高原各流域的洪涝灾害临界雨量,最终得出以下结论:(1)青藏高原绝大多数的洪涝灾害事件均由降水引发,平均每年发生洪涝灾害超过30次,并且洪涝灾害的年发生频次呈上升趋势;(2)青藏高原的洪涝灾害的高发区主要在河湟谷地以及横断山区,次高发区位于藏南河谷区以及河湟谷地的外围区;(3)青藏高原洪涝灾害的临界雨量值在高原的南部最高,其次是高原的东部和东南部,高原中西部及北部最低。

关 键 词：Qinghai-Tibet Plateau flood disaster critical rainfall 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]