Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan  

作　　者：Javed HASSAN CHEN Xiao-qing Rijan Bhakta KAYASTHA NIE Yong 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu,610041,China [2]China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,CAS-HEC,Islamabad,45320,Pakistan [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China [4]Himalayan Cryosphere,Climate and Disaster Research Center(HiCCDRC),Department of Environmental Science and Engineering,School of Science,Kathmandu University,Kavrepalanchowk,45200,Nepal

出　　处：《Journal of Mountain Science》2021年第8期1995-2011,共17页山地科学学报（英文）

基　　金：the Himalayan Cryosphere, Climate and Disaster Research Center (HiCCDRC), Kathmandu University for constant support throughout the research;funded by The Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program (STEP)(Grant No. 2019QZKK0904);supported by the Comprehensive Investigation and Assessment of Natural Hazards in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (Grant No. 2018FY100500);Ministry of Science and Technology Basic Resources Survey Project (2018FY100506);International Science andTechnology Cooperation Program of China (No. 2018YFE0100100);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41925030 and 41661144028)

摘　　要：The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and t

关 键 词：Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM) Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM) Glacio-hydrological Modelling Climatic Variation Snow and ice contributions 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学] P334.92[天文地球—地球物理学]