2006—2015年上海市水痘发病的时空聚集性分析  

Spatio-temporal clustering of varicella in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015

作　　者：张放[1] 管至为 黄晓燕[1] 何永超[1] ZHANG Fang;GUAN Zhi-wei;HUANG Xiao-yan;HE Yong-chao(Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200336

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2021年第8期702-707,共6页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划(2020—2022)优秀人才培养计划(GWV-10.2-YQ52);上海市科委项目(20492420100)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析2006—2015年上海市水痘发病在街镇尺度的时空聚集,探究上海市水痘传播的时空特点,助力卫生主管部门合理分配医疗资源,实现水痘防控精准施策。【方法】基于上海市2006—2015年水痘病例数据,使用时空扫描分析软件SaTScan v9.7对水痘聚集区域进行回顾性探测分析,结合实地调查结果推断解释水痘聚集事件的风险因素。【结果】上海市2006—2015年水痘传播状况存在明显的年际变化和街镇尺度的空间分异。时空扫描分析结果显示,在99.9%的置信水平下,上海市2006—2015年共有7次时空异常聚集事件,3次为片区事件,4次为独立事件。独立事件通常持续时间为2~4年,而“嘉定-崇明”和“松江-闵行”片区事件持续时间较长、影响范围较大。【结论】2006—2015年上海市水痘发病存在明显的时空聚集性,异常时空聚集情况主要集中在郊区而非市区,可能与当地重大建设工程实施导致的流动人口增加、易感人群迁入等情况有关。[Objective]Using a spatio-temporal clustering analysis of varicella in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015 at a subdistrict level,we aim to provide decision support for formulating a reasonable varicella prevention strategy.[Methods]Based on the data of varicella cases in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015,SaTScan was employed to detect and analyze the spatial pattern of varicella clusters.Moreover,field investigation was combined to infer and explain the risk factors of varicella clusters.[Results]The spread of varicella in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015 had an obvious annual change and spatial differentiation at a subdistrict level.The findings of SaTScan showed that with a confidence level of 99.9%,there were totally 7 spatio-temporal clustering events in Shanghai from 2006 to 2015,in which 3 events were regional events and 4 were independent events.Independent events usually lasted for 2-4 years,while regional events in the"Jiading-Chongming district"and"Songjiang-Minhang district"areas had a longer duration and a larger impact.[Conclusions]From 2006 to 2015,there is an obvious temporal and spatial clustering pattern of varicella in Shanghai.Majority of abnormal spatio-temporal clusters occur in rural areas rather than urban areas,which may be related to increasing floating population and migration of susceptible population caused by the implementation of large-scale construction projects.

关 键 词：水痘 时空聚集 SaTScan 时空扫描分析 上海市 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]