关税与汇率变化对福利水平的影响——基于理论与量化分析的研究  

The Welfare Effect of Tariff and Exchange Rate Changes:A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis

作　　者：樊海潮 张丽娜 丁关祖 彭方平[4] Fan Haichao

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济研究所 [2]复旦大学经济学院 [3]上海国际金融与经济研究院 [4]中山大学管理学院

出　　处：《管理世界》2021年第7期61-75,219,共16页Journal of Management World

基　　金：复旦平安宏观经济研究中心的研究项目;中组部万人计划青年拔尖人才项目;复旦大学青年融合创新团队项目的资助。

摘　　要：本文在Eaton和Kortum(2002)及Melitz(2003)模型的基础上融入汇率因素,探讨了关税及汇率的双重变化对一国福利水平的影响,并就其可能的影响机制进行了探析。特别地,2018年以来中美两国关税和汇率水平的大幅变动,为本文的分析提供了良好的研究实例。文章量化分析结果表明,中美两国互相加征关税会恶化两国的总体福利水平,而人民币贬值不仅可以对冲此次关税变动对中国福利水平的负面影响,同时也有助于改善美国的整体福利水平。影响机制的相关分析显示:贸易顺差国货币贬值,对本国及贸易伙伴国的总体福利水平均具有正面效果;但当第三国也对贸易伙伴国汇率贬值时,则会削弱(甚至抵消)本国货币贬值的正面效应。Based on the model of Eaton and Kortum(2002)and Melitz(2003),this paper explores the welfare effects caused by dual changes in tariff and exchange rate as well as the potential mechanism.What's more,the significant changes in tariff and exchange rate between China and the United States since Sino-U.S.Trade Friction in 2018 provides an ideal setting for our paper.Results show that the tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by China and the United States on each other's imported goods worsen two countries' overall welfare.The devaluation of Renminbi,however,can not only hedge the negative impacts of the imposed tariff on China's welfare,but also help to improve the overall welfare of the United States.We also investigate the potential mechanism and find that the currency depreciation of a trade surplus country has a positive effect on both the domestic country overall welfare and its trading partners,but the depreciation of a third partner country's currency will weaken(or even offset)such positive effect.

关 键 词：贸易不平衡 汇率对冲 福利效应 量化分析 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.5