新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情对北京市怀柔区水痘发病水平的影响分析  

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the level of varicella incidence in Huairou district of Beijing

作　　者：魏志权[1] 王红卫[1] 郭雪[1] 高海龙[1] 闫乐[1] WEI Zhi-quan;WANG Hong-wei;GUO Xue;GAO Hai-long;YAN Le(Huairou District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 101400,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市怀柔区疾病预防控制中心,101400

出　　处：《首都公共卫生》2021年第3期168-171,共4页Capital Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的分析新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019,COVID-19)疫情对北京市怀柔区2020年2-5月水痘发病水平的影响。方法利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统资料,采用SPSS 22.0对怀柔区2013年1月-2019年12月水痘发病数据建立SARIMA模型,预测2020年2-5月怀柔区水痘发病水平,并与2020年2-5月水痘实际发病数对比,分析2-5月实际病例与历史同期病例流行病学特征差异,评价影响效果。结果2013年1月-2019年12月水痘发病数拟合SARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)_(12)模型,预测2020年2-5月发病数为94例,而实际发病数为50例,平均相对误差为109.60%,实际发病人数与2013-2019年历史同期数据比较,在年龄、人群、地区分布差异有统计学意义。结论2020年2-5月COVID-19疫情期间怀柔区水痘发病水平显著降低,为疫情常态化的水痘防控提供科学依据。Objective To explore the impact of COVID-19 on the level of varicella incidence in Huairou district from February to May 2020.Methods According to the data of Beijing monitoring and early warning system for infectious diseases,the seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)model was established on monitoring data of varicella in Huairou district from January 2013 to December 2019 by SPSS 22.0,and compared with the actual incidence of varicella from February to May in 2020.The difference in epidemiological characteristics between the actual cases in February-May and historical cases in the same period was analyzed,and the impact effects was evaluated.Results From January 2013 to December 2019,the number of varicella cases was fitted to the SARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)_(12) model,and the predicted number of cases from February to May 2020 was 94,while the actual number of cases was 50 cases,with an average relative error of 109.60%.Compared with the historical data from 2013 to 2019,the actual number of patients had significant differences in age,population,and regional distribution.Conclusions During COVID-19 epidemic in February-May 2020,the level of varicella incidence in Huairou district decreased significantly,providing a scientific basis for the normalization of varicella prevention and control.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 水痘 季节性自回归移动平均混合(SARIMA)模型 影响水平 

分 类 号：R511.5[医药卫生—内科学]