杨干象入侵山东的风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)in Shandong Province

作　　者：杨隽 张秋梅 刘振宇[3,4] 季英超 YANG Jun;ZHANG Qiumei;LIU Zhenyu;JI Yingchao(Forest Resources Monitoring and Conservation Service Center of Yantai City,Yantai Shandong 264000;Forest Pest Control and Quarantine Station of Shandong province,Jinan Shandong 251014;College of Plant Protection,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an Shandong 271018;Shandong Research Center for Forestry Harmful Biological Control Engineering and Technology,Tai'an Shandong 271018)

机构地区：[1]烟台市森林资源监测保护服务中心,山东烟台264000 [2]山东省森林病虫害防治检疫站,山东济南251014 [3]山东农业大学植物保护学院,山东泰安271018 [4]山东省林业有害生物防控工程技术研究中心,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《山东林业科技》2021年第4期52-55,63,共5页Journal of Shandong Forestry Science and Technology

基　　金：山东省农业科技资金(林业科技创新)项目(2019LY003)。

摘　　要：杨干象Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)是我国林业检疫性有害生物之一,已经对我国的杨柳科树木造成严重危害。杨柳科树木在山东省广泛分布,且杨干象尚未在山东省分布,考虑其在分布区危害的严重性,急需对其开展入侵山东省的风险分析。本研究利用CLIMEX4.0模型预测了杨干象在山东的适生性,并根据有害生物危险性分析方法对其在山东的风险性等级做出综合评价。结果表明:杨干象在山东省的生态气候指数EI值介于26~39之间,山东省全境为杨干象的高度适生区;杨干象在山东省的风险性评估值R=0.885,判定为风险性极大。明确杨干象在山东省的适生性及各风险性等级,对山东省对杨干象的监测预警及防控对策的制定具有重要的指导意义。Cryptorhynchus lapathi(L.)is one of the national forestry quarantine pests in China,which has caused serious damage to Salicaceae trees.Salicaceae trees are widely distributed in Shandong province,and C.lapathi has not been distributed in Shandong province.Considering the severity of its harm in the distribution area,it is urgent to carry out risk analysis of invasion of C.lapathi in Shandong province.In this study,CLIMEX 4.0 model was used to predict the adaptability of C.lapathi in Shandong province,and the risk level was comprehensively evaluated based on the pest risk analysis methods.The results showed that the eco-climatic index(EI)of C.lapathi in Shandong province is between 26 and 39,and the whole Shandong province is a highly suitable area for C.lapathi.The risk assessment value R of C.lapathi in Shandong province is 0.885 representing a great risk.It is of great significance to make clear the adaptability and risk level of C.lapathi in Shandong province,which has important guiding significance for the development of monitoring,warning and prevention and control measures.

关 键 词：杨干象 适生性 风险分析 

分 类 号：S763.38[农业科学—森林保护学]